Elliott Abrams has also been thinking about Ukraine and Iran’s war with Israel—not because of the geopolitical connections, but to draw an analogy. Much like Russia had dominated its southwestern neighbor prior to 2014 with the help of local allies, Iran has dominated Lebanon with the help of Hizballah. Now that Israel has “decimated and decapitated” the Iranian proxy, asks Abrams, “where is the Lebanese Zelensky willing to stand up for his nation’s sovereignty?”
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have done nothing to assert the sovereignty of the state against a terrorist group, even though it was agreed in 2006 in UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that only the LAF could be present in Lebanon’s south and that Hizballah must disarm. And there have been no profiles in courage among civilian leaders. Neither Sunni nor Christian nor Druze leaders have stepped forward to demand that Hizballah relinquish its control of the state. Hizballah’s support base is the Shiite community, which is less than a third of Lebanon’s population. (And who knows how much of the Shiite population is pro-Hizballah today?) But anti-Hizballah political forces are missing in action.
There are two good excuses. First, there is a war on. But that war will end faster if Lebanese, and the LAF, act to regain their sovereignty and start demanding and negotiating for a new Lebanon. Second, there is of course fear. Hizballah may be on the run, but it has a vast arsenal and has always been willing to kill politicians, journalists, and others who oppose it.
Still, where . . . is the group of Lebanese leaders willing, arm in arm, to speak up and rally citizens so that the nation doesn’t lose its opportunity to get out from under Iranian control and rebuild?
To this question, the Lebanese analyst and political leader Joseph Gebeily responded that the “opposition to Hizballah has been vocal and active for years. . . . However, the problem lies not with the lack of leadership but with the lack of power.” Nonetheless, Abrams insists, “more is needed from the Lebanese.” Perhaps some support and encouragement from the U.S., Europe, and Saudi Arabia would make a difference.
More about: Hizballah, Lebanon, Volodymyr Zelensky