One sometimes overlooked theater of this war is Iraq, where Iran-backed militias have been launching drones at Israel—one of which killed two soldiers in October. On Monday, Israel formally requested that the UN Security Council pressure Baghdad to rein in these militias. But ultimately, only the U.S. can make that happen. And American influence depends on whether Donald Trump will carry out President Biden’s plans to shut down U.S. military bases in Iraq. Eric Navarro warns of the dangerous consequences of doing so:

Critics may condemn the American presence in Iraq as original sin. . . . The United States does not have the luxury, however, to fumble the present because it disagrees with the past. . . . The fact that the United States has forces stationed in Iraq at low cost and with few casualties should matter. The new administration must ask what the United States would gain from withdrawal.

By maintaining a presence at key nodes such as the Al Asad air base, the United States can avoid creating a vacuum that China, Russia, or Iran would fill. A presence also provides an ability to accomplish strategic and operational outcomes that further U.S. national interests. . . . This, in turn, can help deter Iran’s nuclear ambitions, thwart Turkey’s aggressiveness toward the Kurds, aid Israel in its defense against Iran and its proxies, and strengthen the existing alliances with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.

The question is not whether Trump will bring home American troops; it is whether he will empower Iran and China at America’s expense.

On Monday night, the IDF struck a group of Hamas operatives near the Nasser hospital in Khan Yunis, the main city in southern Gaza. The very fact of this attack was reassuring, as it suggested that the release of Edan Alexander didn’t come with restraints on Israeli military activity. Then, yesterday afternoon, Israeli jets carried out another, larger attack on Khan Yunis, hitting a site where it believed Mohammad Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza, to be hiding. The IDF has not yet confirmed that he was present. There is some hope that the death of Sinwar—who replaced his older brother Yahya after he was killed last year—could have a debilitating effect on Hamas.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is visiting the Persian Gulf, and it’s unclear how his diplomatic efforts there will affect Israel, its war with Hamas, and Iran. For its part, Jerusalem has committed to resume full-scale operations in Gaza after President Trump returns to the U.S. But, Gabi Simoni and Erez Winner explain, Israel does not have unlimited time to defeat Hamas:

Israel faces persistent security challenges across multiple fronts—Iran, the West Bank, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon—all demanding significant military resources, especially during periods of escalation. . . . Failing to achieve a decisive victory not only prolongs the conflict but also drains national resources and threatens Israel’s ability to obtain its strategic goals.

Only a swift, forceful military campaign can achieve the war’s objectives: securing the hostages’ release, ensuring Israeli citizens’ safety, and preventing future kidnappings. Avoiding such action won’t just prolong the suffering of the hostages and deepen public uncertainty—it will also drain national resources and weaken Israel’s standing in the region and beyond.

We recommend launching an intense military operation in Gaza without delay, with clear, measurable objectives—crippling Hamas’s military and governance capabilities and securing the release of hostages. Such a campaign should combine military pressure with indirect negotiations, maximizing the chances of a successful outcome while minimizing risks.

Crucially, the operation must be closely coordinated with the United States and moderate Arab states to reduce international pressure and preserve the gains of regional alliances.