Currently Iran has lost much of its air-defense capabilities; Hizballah, its main striking arm and its insurance policy in case of an attack on its nuclear program, is in disarray; and its missile arsenal has failed to do damage to Israel. Mark Dubowitz and Andrea Stricker urge the incoming president to follow the IDF’s military successes with financial warfare:
During Donald Trump’s first term, his administration took nearly two years to settle on a consistent Iran policy and to impose tough sanctions. This meant if [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei could endure just two years of maximum pressure, Americans might turn President Trump out of office. The gamble paid off.
This time around, Trump should ensure that Tehran has to endure four full years of unstinting pressure. The regime is wealthier thanks to President Biden—its petroleum exports tripled after Trump left office, generating $144 billion of sales from 2021 through 2023. But Tehran is reeling from the hammer blows Israel has delivered to the regime and its proxies since the October 7 slaughter. Twice, Iran has attempted to strike Israel with barrages of missiles, rockets, and drones, all to little effect. Yet when Israel hit back on October 25, it demonstrated that Iran’s supposedly robust air defenses were nearly worthless.
If the Israelis could operate with impunity in Iranian skies, the U.S. Air Force and Navy would face even less resistance. If Trump clearly and consistently says the United States will employ every means at its disposal to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon, the threat of force will be credible. Khamenei will know that if he sprints for the bomb, it may spell the end of his regime. Biden claimed he would never let Iran get a nuclear weapon, but the threat was hollow.
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