In the past few days, more information has emerged about the murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan in Dubai. According to Emirati officials, he was killed by three Uzbek nationals, who were arrested in Turkey and are now in custody in the UAE. It is thus possible, writes Jason M. Brodsky, that the killers were working for Islamic State, which has a network in Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries. But the more likely culprit remains Iran, which now seeks unconventional ways to strike at Israel:
The Tehran regime has attempted multiple operations against Israeli and Jewish targets in the Middle East and beyond. There has been an uptick in such plots, from Europe to South America and from Africa to Asia. It has even sought to kill current and former Israeli officials. But its lack of success in such campaigns against protected individuals in Israel’s defense and security establishment has likely increased the pressure from decision-makers in Tehran for lower-level operatives to aim for softer targets such as Rabbi Kogan, who was a Chabad emissary in the UAE. Iran has an extensive apparatus for extra-territorial operations.
However, in the end, the U.S., the UK, and their regional allies and partners cannot allow Iranian attacks against Jews abroad to become normalized. Handling these cases solely as law-enforcement matters will ensure the Iranian leadership continues to calculate that the benefits of such terror outweigh the costs, which are absorbable. This is because mere criminal penalties against three Uzbek nationals do not touch the Iranian leadership. Economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and military force are necessary to change the Iranian risk calculus.
More about: Iran, ISIS, Terrorism, United Arab Emirates