Yesterday’s newsletter addressed the complex situation unfolding in Syria, and the conflicting reports about it. Hussein Aboubakr Mansour has a thoughtful explanation of what has happened, and how it has been misunderstood:
According to reports, the recent wave of violence was not a broad-based jihadist uprising against all [religious] minorities but a targeted, context-specific assault on the Alawite community along the Syrian coast. In one district alone, local sources reported that over 60 Alawite civilians were executed in a single night, contributing to an overall toll of more than a thousand dead in just a few days. It was a sweeping wave of violence and revenge killings in the Alawite strongholds like Latakia and Tartus. These grim numbers expose a carefully orchestrated massacre—an event that ignited an already volatile powder keg of sectarian resentment.
But also, this latest bloodshed is a continuation of decades of civil war, internal power struggles, [and] deep-seated anti-Alawite grievances as much as it is an outcome of external influences and jihadist mass murderers. . . . The Iranians very well could be the instigators behind these events due to the stakes their axis has in Syria.
Israel has substantial reasons for apprehension, not least because of the recent massacres perpetrated by Gaza-based jihadists—who, in certain historical contexts, have been considered even more moderate than the current strain of jihad from which HTS, [the group now ruling Syria], emerges. Israel’s worst fear is the replacement of Shiite jihad with a more unpredictable Sunni jihad on its northern border or the emergence of an Islamist, pro-Turkish Syria. Such scenarios, arguably among the worst imaginable, have informed Israeli strategic decisions, including airstrikes aimed at eliminating Syrian military capabilities after Assad’s fall.
Ron Ben-Yishai, meanwhile, provides a more detailed examination of Israel’s actions. The bottom line:
Israel is observing from the sidelines, enforcing its policies primarily through its air force, and is transparent about its preference for Syria to become a federation. While Israel has no intention of occupying the country, Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz aim to shape a new demilitarized reality south of Damascus near Israel’s border.
Read more at Abrahamic Critique and Digest
More about: Israeli Security, Syrian civil war