On Saturday, initial meetings between Washington and Tehran took place in Oman on the subject of the Iranian nuclear program. The two sides agreed to continue talks this coming weekend. Elliott Abrams believes that, so far, Iran has come out ahead:
First, the United States demanded direct negotiations while Iran wanted indirect talks. The talks in Oman were indirect, with the Omani foreign minister as go-between. It seems that there was a hello chat and handshake between the U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Aragchi, but no more than that.
Second, the key critique of the JCPOA, the 2015 Obama-Iran agreement, noted that it dealt only with nuclear weapons and ignored both Iran’s support for terrorist proxies and Iran’s missile program. According to press reports, the talks in Oman dealt only with nuclear matters. That is exactly what Iran wants.
Third, the United States appears to be signaling weakness right from the start—abandoning the goal of ending Iran’s nuclear program.
Instead Witkoff has signaled a willingness to accept a JCPOA-style deal, where Iran maintains the capacity to produce the fuel for nuclear weapons, while promising not to use it for this purpose. Abrams continues:
If President Trump wants a quick and dirty deal, Iran will be sure to oblige—in return for an end to some or most U.S. sanctions. Then, once again, there will be an agreement that, [in the words of the first Trump administration’s criticism of the JCPOA], “enriched the Iranian regime and enabled its malign behavior, while at best delaying its ability to pursue nuclear weapons and allowing it to preserve nuclear research and development.”
More about: Donald Trump, Iran nuclear deal, U.S. Foreign policy