On Friday this newsletter mentioned Iran’s involvement—with Russian and Chinese backing—in the ongoing conflict in Western Sahara. This gambit cannot be separated from Russia’s effort to expand its presence in parts of West Africa already suffering from war and famine. Zineb Riboua explains:

The U.S. withdrawal from Niger—following France’s expulsion from Senegal, Mali, and Burkina Faso—marks the collapse of Western footholds in the Sahel, [the semi-desert region south of the Sahara, streatching from Senegal to Eritrea]. As the West retreats, Russia is rapidly filling the vacuum, embedding itself in security structures and expanding its influence beyond its borders. And it’s not just political influence—Russia is Africa’s top arms supplier, accounting for 40 percent of the continent’s weapon imports. This isn’t mere opportunism—it’s Putin’s asymmetric warfare at work.

This shift reinforces Russia’s strategic bloc—Iran secured Nigerien uranium after a Kremlin-backed coup, while China expands its dominance as Moscow erodes Western influence. Together, Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing are forging an axis that directly challenges U.S. interests across the globe.

Before Washington responds, it must recognize the scope of Russia’s ambitions. Africa is no longer a peripheral arena—it’s becoming a central platform for Moscow’s global strategy.

Bear in mind that Russia and Iran just announced a nuclear-cooperation agreement on Friday. And expanding Russian and Iranian influence, combined with American retreat, could also undermine the crucial diplomatic inroads Israel has made in Africa over the past decade.

On Monday night, the IDF struck a group of Hamas operatives near the Nasser hospital in Khan Yunis, the main city in southern Gaza. The very fact of this attack was reassuring, as it suggested that the release of Edan Alexander didn’t come with restraints on Israeli military activity. Then, yesterday afternoon, Israeli jets carried out another, larger attack on Khan Yunis, hitting a site where it believed Mohammad Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza, to be hiding. The IDF has not yet confirmed that he was present. There is some hope that the death of Sinwar—who replaced his older brother Yahya after he was killed last year—could have a debilitating effect on Hamas.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is visiting the Persian Gulf, and it’s unclear how his diplomatic efforts there will affect Israel, its war with Hamas, and Iran. For its part, Jerusalem has committed to resume full-scale operations in Gaza after President Trump returns to the U.S. But, Gabi Simoni and Erez Winner explain, Israel does not have unlimited time to defeat Hamas:

Israel faces persistent security challenges across multiple fronts—Iran, the West Bank, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon—all demanding significant military resources, especially during periods of escalation. . . . Failing to achieve a decisive victory not only prolongs the conflict but also drains national resources and threatens Israel’s ability to obtain its strategic goals.

Only a swift, forceful military campaign can achieve the war’s objectives: securing the hostages’ release, ensuring Israeli citizens’ safety, and preventing future kidnappings. Avoiding such action won’t just prolong the suffering of the hostages and deepen public uncertainty—it will also drain national resources and weaken Israel’s standing in the region and beyond.

We recommend launching an intense military operation in Gaza without delay, with clear, measurable objectives—crippling Hamas’s military and governance capabilities and securing the release of hostages. Such a campaign should combine military pressure with indirect negotiations, maximizing the chances of a successful outcome while minimizing risks.

Crucially, the operation must be closely coordinated with the United States and moderate Arab states to reduce international pressure and preserve the gains of regional alliances.