It is no secret that President Obama wishes Israel had a prime minister other than Benjamin Netanyahu. For the first time in many years, the Israeli left seems to be presenting a credible electoral threat to the Likud. However, writes, Steven J. Rosen, there are many reasons Israeli voters may still turn toward Netanyahu, and an effort to undermine him by provoking a conflict could backfire. Rosen writes:
[T]he left has its own vulnerability, especially on the issue of the Palestinians. Most Israelis do not think the rise of Hamas, Hizballah, and Islamic State makes this a great time to sign an agreement requiring the IDF to leave the West Bank. They followed Ariel Sharon when he pulled every soldier and every settler out of Gaza in 2005, but what happened after that withdrawal was the opposite of “land for peace.” Disengagement in 2005 brought, not peace, but the election of Hamas in 2006; a coup in Gaza in 2007; three wars in Gaza in 2008-9, 2012, and 2013; 10,000 rockets and missiles where before there were none; tunnels to infiltrate Israeli communities; and lots more. . . .
But where, some argue, Netanyahu may be more vulnerable, is by feeding the belief that he has strained relations with Israel’s traditional allies in the United States and Europe. . . . If Obama decides to pick a fight with Netanyahu to influence the Israeli election, it could be focused on their personal relations. . . . [However,] Obama could pay a price for provoking another confrontation with Bibi. His own credibility is tarnished, particularly in foreign policy. He faces a Republican Congress that is unlikely to go along. The theory that friction will weaken Netanyahu is unproved; the reverse could happen. And Netanyahu may well win the Israeli election on March 17, so Obama needs to think about the morning after.
More about: Barack Obama, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli politics, US-Israel relations