Until recently, advanced missiles even of the short- and medium-range variety were sought only by countries capable of equipping them with nuclear warheads; otherwise, these weapons can accomplish little. Now, however, the new technology known as terminal guidance—which can bring missiles to their targets even if they have been launched with imperfect accuracy—can make non-nuclear missiles extremely lethal. Max Singer warns:
Precision-guided missiles make it possible to threaten decisive damage with a small number of non-nuclear weapons. They can have a strategic effect, in other words, that is comparable in important ways to that of nuclear weapons. Terminal-guidance technology (much of which is based on civilian technology) is now beginning to spread among smaller powers, including some that have not acquired nuclear weapons. . . .
[I]f terminal-guidance technology spreads to more countries (and possibly to terrorist groups), we will be living in a new world. . . . Israel has, unfortunately, been the first to enter this new world of precision-guided missiles. It faces at least two enemies that already have this capability, or are likely to have it within the next few years: Iran and Hizballah. Someday, Hamas might also acquire such weapons. . . .
Accurate missiles . . . [mean] that Israel can be defeated even if it wins the old forms of war. Consider the hypothetical possibility of a war with Hizballah that results in Hizballah ground forces being defeated so badly that other Lebanese are able to regain control of their country. . . . [Even so], Israel could suffer thousands of civilian deaths, as well as the destruction of its main electric power plants, water-desalination capabilities, international airport, and other critical infrastructure. . . .
The IDF’s effectiveness could also be sharply reduced by the destruction of key facilities. The military damage might be so great that Israel would be less able to defend its borders. Or the economic damage from a small number of missiles hitting cleverly chosen targets might be great enough to cause a significant fraction of Israelis and foreign investors to leave the country.
In other words, in this new kind of war, Israel can be fatally damaged even if it wins according to the [standards of traditional warfare].
Read more on BESA Center: http://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/new-threat-accurate-missiles/