As speculation mounts that President Trump will abandon the 2015 agreement to limit the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, the agreement’s defenders have begun predicting that Tehran will respond by trying to develop atomic weapons as quickly as possible, leading to disaster. Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh doubt Iran will be so reckless:
Iran is unlikely to rush to a bomb using one of its monitored facilities and the thousands of [unsophisticated] IR-1 centrifuges that such a task would demand. It would take time to reinstall the higher-yield 1,000 IR-2ms currently under the surveillance of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Such stark actions would be detected, likely bringing on U.S. military strikes. The advantage of the most advanced centrifuges, [the IR-6 and IR-8 that Iranian researchers are currently working to develop], is that a small number can rapidly enrich uranium to weapons-grade [quality]. Their cascades can be easily concealed in a warehouse, making them extremely difficult to detect. They are key to a nuclear fait accompli. . . .
[Iran] cannot do much to speed up the development of advanced centrifuges. It routinely takes a country at least a decade to design and construct a new generation. Which is why [the regime and its] nuclear scientists want to preserve the agreement, [which allows them to keep working on the new centrifuges without the burden of sanctions].
The clerical regime may still embark on some nuclear activities as a gesture of defiance to Trump. It may reinstall some of its mothballed centrifuges and continue to perfect the IR2ms. It may stockpile uranium it is currently committed to shipping abroad. It may even enrich uranium to 20 percent. All of these moves are troublesome and will provoke hyperventilating headlines, but they hardly constitute a mad rush to the bomb. . . .
Alone now, Washington has to be willing to play hardball with Tehran by insisting that it does have military options. But our primary task ought to be to squeeze the theocracy relentlessly. Enormous economic pressure can still be brought to bear on Tehran. As the recent nationwide anti-regime demonstrations in Iran revealed, economic frustration and political disgust are widespread in areas the mullahs had assumed were still faithful to theocracy.
Read more on Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/04/03/why-iran-wont-rush-to-a-bomb-if-trump-pulls-out-of-the-nuclear-deal