Persuasion, Not Coercion, Is the Way to Get European Support for Sanctions on Iran

In withdrawing from the nuclear deal with Iran, the Trump administration reinstituted U.S. sanctions that include penalties on European corporations that do business with the Islamic Republic. While these measures certainly have their utility, argue Michael Doran and Peter Rough, Washington would be better served by trying to persuade European governments that they ought to join in efforts to contain the Islamic Republic:

It has been more than a decade since senior American officials traveled to Europe with the explicit purpose of explaining the threat Iran poses and the necessity of extraordinary Western actions to counter it. Whereas America had a vigorous debate around the Iran deal, European elites sanctified it, and the Obama administration praised them for it.

Over the past year, the Trump administration’s message about the deal has been less than consistent. . . . [European leaders’] current complaint, that President Trump turned over the card table and pulled out his revolver, is self-serving but understandable. Trump should now make it an urgent priority to dispel this image. . . .

In addition to blasting the supposed brazenness of the U.S. withdrawal, European leaders allege that it violated international law, as they claim Iran had complied with its terms. That charge is specious, and the U.S. should refute it vigorously. Israel’s daring capture in January of information on Iran’s nuclear program confirmed that Tehran had violated the nuclear deal and the international nonproliferation treaty. The captured information proves that Iran never offered a full accounting of the past military dimensions of its nuclear program.

Instead of launching a public-diplomacy campaign to inform Europeans of these revelations, however, U.S. and Israeli officials allowed critics to mobilize and dismiss the Israeli discoveries as inconsequential. Energy Secretary Rick Perry should respond now by launching a road show to highlight Iran’s alarming deceptions. . . .

Even a successful campaign of persuasion will never convince the Europeans that they aren’t being coerced. It can, however, soften their resentment. And a high-level overture to Europe would in itself send a positive message. It would show Europeans that despite the disagreement about Iran, the U.S. still respects them. Especially after the bruising G-7 summit, a little tenderness could go a long way.

Read more at Hudson

More about: Donald Trump, Europe, Iran, Iran sanctions, U.S. Foreign policy

What a Strategic Victory in Gaza Can and Can’t Achieve

On Tuesday, the Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant met in Washington with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Gallant says that he told the former that only “a decisive victory will bring this war to an end.” Shay Shabtai tries to outline what exactly this would entail, arguing that the IDF can and must attain a “strategic” victory, as opposed to merely a tactical or operational one. Yet even after a such a victory Israelis can’t expect to start beating their rifles into plowshares:

Strategic victory is the removal of the enemy’s ability to pose a military threat in the operational arena for many years to come. . . . This means the Israeli military will continue to fight guerrilla and terrorist operatives in the Strip alongside extensive activity by a local civilian government with an effective police force and international and regional economic and civil backing. This should lead in the coming years to the stabilization of the Gaza Strip without Hamas control over it.

In such a scenario, it will be possible to ensure relative quiet for a decade or more. However, it will not be possible to ensure quiet beyond that, since the absence of a fundamental change in the situation on the ground is likely to lead to a long-term erosion of security quiet and the re-creation of challenges to Israel. This is what happened in the West Bank after a decade of relative quiet, and in relatively stable Iraq after the withdrawal of the United States at the end of 2011.

Read more at BESA Center

More about: Gaza War 2023, Hamas, IDF