Since 2013, the IDF has carried out hundreds, if not thousands, of airstrikes in Syria, targeting military installations, transports, and infrastructure belonging to Iran, its proxy Hizballah, and the regime of Bashar al-Assad himself. None of its planes have been shot down, and attempts at retaliation have generally fallen flat, and failed to deter. Eran Lerman responds to the argument that, despite this apparent success, this “War Between Wars” has failed to achieve its strategic ends:
The Iranians do have a significant presence and a number of training bases in Syria and may yet seek to expand their presence. On the other hand, an Iranian stronghold in Syria had not materialized to date as envisioned. Specifically, the “precision project” as Israelis call it—Iran’s effort to supply Hizballah with terminal guidance systems for its large arsenal of medium-range missiles aimed at Israel—was disrupted and delayed again and again.
My assessment is an interim one—to date Israel is preventing Iran from building a base for itself in Syria. But as both sides escalate their military responses, there is the danger of triggering the confrontation that both Israel and Lebanese Hizballah have been careful to avoid for seventeen years.
James Jeffrey provides a complementary view of the same question from an American perspective:
The surprise is not that Assad has escaped disaster but that, even after the last two plus years of indifferent American Syria policy, he has not won. That situation, owing in part to Israeli actions, still provides an opportunity for the U.S., Israel, and other actors together to shape a final Syria outcome to advance regional security. In short, the Syria conflict isn’t over yet.
Israel’s air operations, supported by the U.S. beginning in 2018, and coordinated informally with other military pressure on the Assad regime, have helped freeze the conflict.
And, Jeffrey observes, a frozen conflict, with all its problems, is far preferable to a clear victory by Assad and his Iranian and Russian backers.
Read more on Jerusalem Strategic Tribune: https://jstribune.com/lerman-assessing-israels-ongoing-campaign-against-iran-in-syria/