Israel’s Tactical Successes in Syria Haven’t Achieved a Strategic Victory

Since the beginning of Syria’s civil war in 2011, the IDF has carried out hundreds of attacks on hostile forces within the country—mostly airstrikes on Iranian positions or those of Iranian proxies. Jerusalem’s ability to identify precise targets and hit them seemingly at will, while maintaining near-zero casualties, suggests the sort of military supremacy normally associated with strategic success. Ehud Yaari is not so sure:

Israel’s short-term tactical calculations ignore the longer-term risks. Iran is determined to accept substantial losses in order to persist in its primary objective: deploying long- and medium-range missiles in Syria, complete with air-defense systems. So far, Iran has shied away from sending significant numbers of its own troops to Syria, preferring instead to send teams of . . . “advisors” to command mostly-Shiite militiamen and local recruits. In the future, under a new supreme leader and following modernization of its air force, Tehran may be prepared to raise the stakes.

The late commander of the Quds Force, [Iran’s elite expeditionary and terror-coordination unit], General Qassem Suleimani, conceived a plan to set up an Iranian-sponsored war machine on Syria’s territory including thousands of missile pads, fleets of UAVs, anti-aircraft batteries, and a chain of fortified positions along the Israeli border backed by a variety of intelligence-gathering installations. He was the first Middle Eastern leader with a detailed strategy of gradually strangling Israel.

The bottom line is clear. As long as [the Syrian dictator] Bashar al-Assad remains in power, Iran’s military build-up will gradually expand, acquiring more potential over time. Hopes that the West or the Arab states would offer Assad attractive incentives to break away from Iran’s embrace are wishful thinking. The close alliance between the two dates back to the 1970s and by now Iran has become a permanent feature of post-war Syria.

Read more at Jerusalem Strategic Tribune

More about: Iran, Israeli Security, Syrian civil war

Why Taiwan Stands with Israel

On Tuesday, representatives of Hamas met with their counterparts from Fatah—the faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) once led by Yasir Arafat that now governs parts of the West Bank—in Beijing to discuss possible reconciliation. While it is unlikely that these talks will yield any more progress than the many previous rounds, they constitute a significant step in China’s increasing attempts to involve itself in the Middle East on the side of Israel’s enemies.

By contrast, writes Tuvia Gering, Taiwan has been quick and consistent in its condemnations of Hamas and Iran and its expressions of sympathy with Israel:

Support from Taipei goes beyond words. Taiwan’s appointee in Tel Aviv and de-facto ambassador, Abby Lee, has been busy aiding hostage families, adopting the most affected kibbutzim in southern Israel, and volunteering with farmers. Taiwan recently pledged more than half a million dollars to Israel for critical initiatives, including medical and communications supplies for local municipalities. This follows earlier aid from Taiwan to an organization helping Israeli soldiers and families immediately after the October 7 attack.

The reasons why are not hard to fathom:

In many ways, Taiwan sees a reflection of itself in Israel—two vibrant democracies facing threats from hostile neighbors. Both nations wield substantial economic and technological prowess, and both heavily depend on U.S. military exports and diplomacy. Taipei also sees Israel as a “role model” for what Taiwan should aspire to be, citing its unwavering determination and capabilities to defend itself.

On a deeper level, Taiwanese leaders seem to view Israel’s war with Hamas and Iran as an extension of a greater struggle between democracy and autocracy.

Gering urges Israel to reciprocate these expressions of friendship and to take into account that “China has been going above and beyond to demonize the Jewish state in international forums.” Above all, he writes, Jerusalem should “take a firmer stance against China’s support for Hamas and Iran-backed terrorism, exposing the hypocrisy and repression that underpin its vision for a new global order.”

Read more at Atlantic Council

More about: Israel diplomacy, Israel-China relations, Palestinian Authority, Taiwan