Bombed nearly to oblivion by Bashar al-Assad and his Russian allies, and its civilian population reportedly subjected to numerous atrocities by pro-regime soldiers, the key rebel stronghold has fallen. Tom Rogan looks at what is likely to come next:
First off, Syria’s Sunni-dominated rebellion will no longer be a national campaign—it will become a collection of geographically limited ones. Apart from two sparsely populated central areas, the moderate rebels will hold only pockets of southeastern and northeastern Syria. . . . Second, al-Qaeda-linked organizations and other jihadist groups will grow stronger. [Meanwhile], moderate groups will suffer a smack to their credibility after Aleppo falls. . . .
Third, . . . we’ll see expanded external support for the extremists, notably from the Sunni monarchies. Led by the House of Saud, the Sunni kingdoms view Assad through the lens of sectarian hatred. That view is formed partly by Assad’s slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Syrian Sunnis, but also by his alliance with Shiite-revolutionary Iran. After Aleppo, expect the monarchies to increase funding, perhaps through proxies, for groups such as al-Qaeda [and its affiliates]. . . .
Finally, Putin will use Aleppo’s capture to damage U.S. foreign policy. His intentions are already clear. After all, in English-language propaganda outlets such as RT, the Russians are proudly rejecting American demands that Sunni rebels be given safe passage out of Aleppo. . . . Unwilling to pressure Russia, President Obama is simply ignored by Putin. Through this public display of American impotence, Putin asserts his grand strategy in the Middle East.
More about: Al Qaeda, Politics & Current Affairs, Saudi Arabia, Syrian civil war, U.S. Foreign policy, Vladimir Putin
