Islamic State May Be on the Defensive, but the Ideology behind It Is Not

While Islamic State (IS) is rapidly losing ground in both Iraq and Syria, and its crucial strongholds of Raqqa and Mosul seem poised to fall, its animating Salafist-jihadist doctrines are as strong as ever. Already, IS has spawned affiliates from Southeast Asia to Africa and has coordinated and inspired terrorist attacks in the West. To make matters worse, al-Qaeda has been biding its time and preparing to stage a comeback. Yoram Schweitzer argues that the American-led coalition must ensure stability in order to prevent Islamic State’s resurgence:

Despite the bitter personal and inter-organizational conflict between Islamic State and its partners on the one hand and al-Qaeda and its affiliates on the other, and the disputes concerning the correct strategy for realizing their shared vision of establishing the Islamic caliphate—as expressed in venomous rhetorical exchanges and sometimes also in violent clashes between the two sides—what they have in common is still much greater than what separates them. Furthermore, it is likely that as the international pressure against IS and al-Qaeda increases, the chances of a rapprochement between them will also grow.

The deaths of [some] Islamic State leaders . . . raises the possibility that all the organizations in the Salafist-jihadist camp will combine forces. Therefore, although a formal reunion between Islamic State and al-Qaeda appears unrealistic, local ad-hoc cooperation between groups and terrorist networks, and even more, movement of operatives or organized units across and within the various groups identified with this ideology, can certainly be expected. . . .

[It is the likely] intention of the Salafist-jihadist movement to suspend the caliphate idea temporarily and replace it with the establishment of “emirates” in territories where the movement [already] has a presence and there are existing problems with national government structures. Therefore, in addition to a focused military campaign against organizations, networks, and activists who are part of this ideological movement, action—involving close international cooperation in political, economic, diplomatic, legal, and educational aspects—should be taken in order to prevent the threat of terrorism by this movement from reappearing and expanding.

Read more at Institute for National Security Studies

More about: Al Qaeda, ISIS, Middle East, Politics & Current Affairs, U.S. Foreign policy, War on Terror

Why Taiwan Stands with Israel

On Tuesday, representatives of Hamas met with their counterparts from Fatah—the faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) once led by Yasir Arafat that now governs parts of the West Bank—in Beijing to discuss possible reconciliation. While it is unlikely that these talks will yield any more progress than the many previous rounds, they constitute a significant step in China’s increasing attempts to involve itself in the Middle East on the side of Israel’s enemies.

By contrast, writes Tuvia Gering, Taiwan has been quick and consistent in its condemnations of Hamas and Iran and its expressions of sympathy with Israel:

Support from Taipei goes beyond words. Taiwan’s appointee in Tel Aviv and de-facto ambassador, Abby Lee, has been busy aiding hostage families, adopting the most affected kibbutzim in southern Israel, and volunteering with farmers. Taiwan recently pledged more than half a million dollars to Israel for critical initiatives, including medical and communications supplies for local municipalities. This follows earlier aid from Taiwan to an organization helping Israeli soldiers and families immediately after the October 7 attack.

The reasons why are not hard to fathom:

In many ways, Taiwan sees a reflection of itself in Israel—two vibrant democracies facing threats from hostile neighbors. Both nations wield substantial economic and technological prowess, and both heavily depend on U.S. military exports and diplomacy. Taipei also sees Israel as a “role model” for what Taiwan should aspire to be, citing its unwavering determination and capabilities to defend itself.

On a deeper level, Taiwanese leaders seem to view Israel’s war with Hamas and Iran as an extension of a greater struggle between democracy and autocracy.

Gering urges Israel to reciprocate these expressions of friendship and to take into account that “China has been going above and beyond to demonize the Jewish state in international forums.” Above all, he writes, Jerusalem should “take a firmer stance against China’s support for Hamas and Iran-backed terrorism, exposing the hypocrisy and repression that underpin its vision for a new global order.”

Read more at Atlantic Council

More about: Israel diplomacy, Israel-China relations, Palestinian Authority, Taiwan