On Saturday, the IDF conducted a number of airstrikes on Hizballah and another Iran-controlled militia operating out of Lebanon. Such attacks play a crucial role in countering Tehran’s multifront war on Israel and may help to restore deterrence. But they do little to stop Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons, which appear to continue apace even as the Islamic Republic’s proxies attack Israel, the U.S. military, and international shipping. Farhad Rezaei writes:

The Biden administration’s conciliatory approach towards the Islamic regime in Iran has significantly bolstered its position in the Middle East and emboldened its pursuit of nuclear-weapons capabilities. If the United States government continues to ignore Iran’s nuclear developments, it may decide to build an atomic bomb. The prospect of such a scenario is plausible given the significant growth in the regime’s nuclear capabilities, a sharp decline in the program’s transparency, and increased security incentives for the government to build the bomb amidst shifting global priorities.

Counterintuitively, the overwhelming retaliatory strikes by the United States and Israel against Iranian proxies may have heightened the regime’s motivation to pursue nuclear weapons. The regime might conclude that possessing nuclear arms is the only way to deter these nations from opposing Iran’s regional ambitions and its quest for dominance in the Middle East.

Adding to this is the shift in the discourse in Tehran. Iranian officials, who in the past were silent on the matter, have recently been quite upfront about their readiness to develop a nuclear weapon if they choose to do so.

In a statement released on social media on Monday, the president-elect declared that if the hostages held by Hamas are not released before his inauguration, “there will be all hell to pay” for those who “perpetrated these atrocities against humanity.” But will Hamas take such a threat seriously? And, even if Donald Trump decides to convert his words into actions after taking office, exactly what steps could he take? Ron Ben-Yishai writes:

While Trump lacks direct military options against Hamas—given Israel’s ongoing actions—he holds three powerful levers to pressure the group into showing some flexibility on the hostage deal or to punish it if it resists after his inauguration. The first lever targets Hamas’s finances, focusing on its ability to fund activities after the fighting ends. This extends beyond Gaza to Lebanon and other global hubs where Hamas derives strength. . . . Additionally, Trump could pressure Qatar to cut off its generous funding and donations to the Islamist organization.

The other levers are also financial rather than military: increasing sanctions on Iran to force it to pressure Hamas, and withholding aid for the reconstruction of Gaza until the hostages are released. In Ben-Yishai’s view, “Trump’s statement undoubtedly represents a positive development and could accelerate the process toward a hostage-release agreement.”