Hizballah currently has over 130,000 missiles, rockets, and mortars pointed at Israel—more than can be found in the combined arsenals of all NATO countries except the U.S. These include hundreds of large-payload, long-range rockets that could destroy large buildings or even entire neighborhoods, as well as thousands of smaller lethal projectiles that are too small to be intercepted by Israel’s missile-defense systems. Speaking with a number of high-ranking Israeli officers and security experts, Willy Stern finds that most believe a war with Hizballah is inevitable. In the words of one of his interviewees, “it is going to be an absolute sh—storm. And [Israel is] going to be blamed.”

Hizballah cleverly places its arsenal where any Israeli military response—even legal, carefully planned, narrowly targeted, proportionate measures—will lead to massive civilian casualties among Lebanese. Why? Hassan Nasrallah, Hizballah’s cunning leader, sees a win-win situation. He’d like nothing better than for the IDF to kill Lebanese civilians. When these awful images appear on CNN and the front pages of the New York Times, Nasrallah will paint the IDF as baby-killers and worse. . . .

Israel wants the world to know that (1) a war with Hizballah in Lebanon will be, unavoidably, awful; and (2) the massive collateral damage won’t be Israel’s fault. Even more than that, the IDF seems to be pleading to the international community: do something. Stop Hizballah. Before it is too late, and they drag the region into a bloody hellhole. . . .

[Still], given Israel’s sophisticated, high-tech war-fighting machine, Amos Yadlin, [a retired major general and former head of military intelligence], says the IDF will have “clear superiority” in any conflict with Hizballah. Deterrence matters. Yadlin and every IDF officer I spoke to made one point clear: a war with Hizballah may be ugly, but Israel will win. Decisively.

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.