Shortly after the Hamas’s onslaught on Israel, the strategist Aaron MacLean wrote an article for Mosaic arguing that the IDF should refrain from a major campaign to gain control of the Gaza. Instead, he suggested, Jerusalem should go on the offensive against Hamas’s Iranian sponsors elsewhere, while picking off the terrorist leaders and capabilities on its own schedule. Six months later, the Gaza war has gone far better for Israel on the ground than just about anyone expected. Yet MacLean remains skeptical about the possibilities of strategic victory, for reasons he outlines when putting this difficult question to Michael Doran: is Hamas winning? (Audio, 37 minutes).

Israel’s goals of freeing the hostages and defeating Hamas (the latter necessary to prevent further hostage taking) are to some extent contradictory, since Yahya Sinwar, the ruler of the Gaza Strip, will only turn over hostages in exchange for concessions. But Jacob Nagel remains convinced that Jerusalem should continue to pursue both goals:

Only consistent military pressure on Hamas can lead to the hostages’ release, either through negotiation or military operation. There’s little chance of reaching a deal with Hamas using current approaches, including the latest Egyptian proposal. Israeli concessions would only encourage further pressure from Hamas.

There is no incentive for Hamas to agree to a deal, especially since it believes it can achieve its full objectives without one. Unfortunately, many contribute to this belief, mainly from outside of Israel, but also from within.

Recent months saw Israel mistakenly refraining from entering Rafah for several reasons. Initially, the main [reason was to try] to negotiate a deal with Hamas. However, as it became clear that Hamas was uninterested, and its only goal was to return to its situation before October 7—where Hamas and its leadership control Gaza, Israeli forces are out, and there are no changes in the borders—the deal didn’t mature.