Since Sunday, American, Qatari, Egyptian, and Israeli diplomats have been engaged in ceasefire negotiations in Cairo. Much is opaque about these talks, including whether Arab mediators are in contact with the representatives of the Hamas government in Gaza, led by Yahya Sinwar and his brother Mohammad, or of the terrorist group’s Qatar-based nominal chief Ismail Haniyeh. Khaled Abu Toameh explains:

Prior to the war, relations between the Sinwar brothers and the Hamas leadership abroad were said to be tense. The Sinwar brothers, with the help of the Hamas military commanders Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa [killed by the IDF last month], acted as if they were a separate group from Hamas, often refusing to accept dictates from Haniyeh and other senior Hamas officials in Qatar and Lebanon.

In the aftermath of the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip, the disconnect between the Sinwar brothers and the Hamas leadership abroad has only deepened. It’s not clear how messages are being directly communicated, if at all, between the Hamas leaders abroad, who are negotiating with the Egyptians and Qataris, and the incommunicado Gaza-based Hamas leaders.

According to an Arab diplomatic source, Yahya Sinwar recently sent an urgent message from his hideout to the Egyptians to the effect that any deal brokered by Haniyeh would be turned down by the Gaza-based leadership and Hamas’ military wing. As a result, Haniyeh was forced to call off a planned visit to the Egyptian capital of Cairo.

As far as the Sinwar brothers are concerned, the only thing that matters now is their personal survival and retaining control of the Gaza Strip. . . . Given the mistrust (and disconnect) between the Gaza-based Hamas leadership and the terror group’s leaders abroad, one can only wonder whether the Qataris and Egyptians are wasting their time negotiating with representatives who do not represent the Sinwar brothers.

Abu Toameh’s question raises another one: if Haniyeh and his colleagues aren’t playing a useful role in the negotiations, why are they allowed to live luxuriously in Doha rather than being delivered into American or Israeli custody? Conversely, if Haniyeh does have leverage over Sinwar, why aren’t U.S. and Qatari officials threatening him with serious repercussions if Hamas doesn’t produce the hostages forthwith? And if the answer to either question is that Qatar wants to protect Hamas’s leaders, why does it remain a U.S. ally?

Israel’s goals of freeing the hostages and defeating Hamas (the latter necessary to prevent further hostage taking) are to some extent contradictory, since Yahya Sinwar, the ruler of the Gaza Strip, will only turn over hostages in exchange for concessions. But Jacob Nagel remains convinced that Jerusalem should continue to pursue both goals:

Only consistent military pressure on Hamas can lead to the hostages’ release, either through negotiation or military operation. There’s little chance of reaching a deal with Hamas using current approaches, including the latest Egyptian proposal. Israeli concessions would only encourage further pressure from Hamas.

There is no incentive for Hamas to agree to a deal, especially since it believes it can achieve its full objectives without one. Unfortunately, many contribute to this belief, mainly from outside of Israel, but also from within.

Recent months saw Israel mistakenly refraining from entering Rafah for several reasons. Initially, the main [reason was to try] to negotiate a deal with Hamas. However, as it became clear that Hamas was uninterested, and its only goal was to return to its situation before October 7—where Hamas and its leadership control Gaza, Israeli forces are out, and there are no changes in the borders—the deal didn’t mature.