While visiting Jerusalem earlier this week, the French foreign minister pledged that he would push for new multilateral sanctions against the Iranian nuclear program. Congress, meanwhile, has included significant new economic measures against Iran in its recent package of national-security bills. And since last month’s drone and missile attack, even the White House has shown signs of moving away from its tacit policy of minimally enforcing existing sanctions. But Sever Plocker, one of Israel’s most prominent economists, is skeptical:

Despite thousands of Iranian officials, from regime leaders to field commanders, being blacklisted by the U.S. and the European Union, Iran’s economy continues to function and progress. There is considerable doubt that the bombastic announcements of additional U.S. and European sanctions heard [last] week will change the situation.

Firstly, Iran maintains intricate and developed economic relationships with countries that do not see themselves bound by the sanctions regime, including Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. Secondly, even the most comprehensive sanctions tend to unravel and weaken over time, as gaps within them widen. Meanwhile, the international community’s political will to enforce them diminishes; the validity of a significant part of the sanctions on Iran naturally expired at the end of 2023 and was not renewed due to a lack of consensus in the UN Security Council.

The diminishing effectiveness of the sanctions has pushed decision-makers in Tehran to launch a military campaign against Israel and could lead them into a prolonged war against us—a war they perceive as an escape from a volatile domestic political situation and a means to maintain their regime. . . . While Hamas could have been and still can be coerced economically to release our hostages, challenging and blocking Iran’s Middle Eastern imperial aspirations with another round of sanctions is unlikely to be effective.

While the current Egyptian president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, has never been friendly to Hamas, his government has objected strenuously to the Israeli campaign in the southernmost part of the Gaza Strip. Haisam Hassanein explains why:

Cairo has long been playing a double game, holding Hamas terrorists near while simultaneously trying to appear helpful to the United States and Israel. Israel taking control of Rafah threatens Egypt’s ability to exploit the chaos in Gaza, both to generate profits for regime insiders and so Cairo can pose as an indispensable mediator and preserve access to U.S. money and arms.

Egyptian security officials have looked the other way while Hamas and other Palestinian militants dug tunnels on the Egyptian-Gaza border. That gave Cairo the ability to use the situation in Gaza as a tool for regional influence and to ensure Egypt’s role in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict would not be eclipsed by regional competitors such as Qatar and Turkey.

Some elements close to the Sisi regime have benefited from Hamas control over Gaza and the Rafah crossing. Media reports indicate an Egyptian company run by one of Sisi’s close allies is making hundreds of millions of dollars by taxing Gazans fleeing the current conflict.

Moreover, writes Judith Miller, the Gaza war has been a godsend to the entire Egyptian economy, which was in dire straits last fall. Since October 7, the International Monetary Fund has given the country a much-needed injection of cash, since the U.S. and other Western countries believe it is a necessary intermediary and stabilizing force. Cairo therefore sees the continuation of the war, rather than an Israeli victory, as most desirable. Hassanein concludes:

Adding to its financial incentive, the Sisi regime views the Rafah crossing as a crucial card in preserving Cairo’s regional standing. Holding it increases Egypt’s relevance to countries that want to send aid to the Palestinians and ensures Washington stays quiet about Egypt’s gross human-rights violations so it can maintain a stable flow of U.S. assistance and weaponry. . . . No serious effort to turn the page on Hamas will yield the desired results without cutting this umbilical cord between the Sisi regime and Hamas.