Since the Syrian civil war began, Israel has carried out airstrikes to prevent Hizballah from establishing positions close to its borders or receiving shipments of weapons. So far, Israel has not been hindered by the Russian air campaign in Syria, and Russian planes have occasionally entered Israeli airspace without incident. But as Russian cooperation with Hizballah increases, writes Nadav Pollak, a confrontation becomes more likely:
[T]wo main trends will challenge Israeli-Russian coordination. The first is Iran and Hizballah’s objective of expanding their presence in the Golan Heights. In mid-October, Hizballah and Syrian forces pushed back rebels in Quneitra and regained control over a number of important military posts. Since then, the Assad regime and its partners have intensified their operations in the south [of Syria]. . . . [A]ny expansion of Hizballah and Iranian proxies in Quneitra or western Deraa province, [which lies just east of the Golan], would be considered a threat to Israel. And if Russia facilitates such advancement with its airpower, Jerusalem’s ability to react will be more limited.
Another trend . . . is Russia’s deepening relations with Hizballah and Iran. The intervention’s unremarkable results thus far have shown Moscow that the air campaign has its limits without a capable ground force. In that regard, Hizballah and Iranian forces have proven to be instrumental on some fronts. . . . [A]s the fighting continues, Moscow might discover that its relations with Hizballah and Iran outweigh its silent agreement to allow Israeli airstrikes against them. In that scenario, Israeli pilots would quite suddenly find themselves under threat from sophisticated Russian air defenses.
Read more at Washington Institute for Near East Policy
More about: Golan Heights, Hizballah, Israel & Zionism, Israeli Security, Russia, Syrian civil war