In recent weeks, Ankara has made a variety of gestures that suggest a desire to reestablish its once friendly relations with Jerusalem, which have deteriorated since Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power in 2002. On Monday, unverified reports circulated in the Western press that Turkey is prepared to expel Hamas, which has had its main base of operations there since 2015. Erdogan’s reasons for seeking to make amends are not hard to divine: he faces a hostile White House, tensions with the European Union, a sputtering economy, and a rocky relationship with his sometimes-patron in Moscow. But, Lazar Berman writes, much has changed since 1949, when Turkey became the first Muslim-majority country to recognize the Jewish state:

A more constructive relationship with Israel would help dampen anti-Erdogan sentiment on Capitol Hill and in the Biden administration, in Turkey’s calculation. . . . Israel also has positive reasons to turn the page with Turkey. Syria, Iraq, and Iran all border Turkey, and renewed defense ties with Ankara would enhance Israeli military and intelligence activities in the region. . . . But Turkey is discovering that Israel is not jumping at the opportunity to restore close ties.

Israel’s burgeoning diplomatic and security relationship with Arab states has strengthened Israel’s position in the region. Israel has other avenues to engage diplomatically with the Muslim world, has new trade partners, and can now fly over Arab airspace to go east instead of being forced to rely on Turkey’s.

[I]t is likely that Israel will have three main demands in talks with Turkey. The first is an old demand: Turkey must cease allowing Hamas to plan military activities from its soil. . . . Israel will also want Turkey to be more transparent about its activities in eastern Jerusalem. . . . With the cooperation of Muslim Brotherhood groups in the city, Turkey is actively asserting itself in Arab neighborhoods and on the Temple Mount by initiating and funding cultural and political activities. Jordan and other Arab countries have reportedly asked Israel to do more to curb growing Turkish influence in Jerusalem.

Finally, Israel will also likely demand Erdogan and Turkish officials tone down their harsh anti-Israel rhetoric, particularly around Israeli policies in Gaza.

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.