Last week has hardly been a peaceful one for Israel. On Tuesday, a group of Palestinians barricaded themselves in al-Aqsa mosque with a stockpile of weapons, disrupting Ramadan prayers and clashing with police. On Friday, a terrorist murdered two sisters, ages fifteen and twenty, and seriously wounded their mother. An Italian tourist was also killed in a separate attack the same day. In addition, rockets were fired at Israel from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria over the course of the week, and riots broke out in several places. Jerusalem responded Saturday and Sunday with multiple airstrikes on Syrian territory, some targeting Syrian miliary installations. Unusually, the IDF—which normally neither confirms nor denies such attacks—claimed responsibility in an official statement to the press.

Yoni Ben Menachem explains what links these events, and examines Israel’s reaction:

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards planned the attacks on Israel for a long time in cooperation with its affiliates. The current round of fighting is only the first stage in Iran’s phased plan to destroy Israel, and the next stages will follow. The Axis of Resistance, [as Tehran calls its allies and network of proxy militias], estimates that the wave of Israeli protests against judicial reform and recent crises with the United States have weakened Israel. They believe the IDF cannot fight simultaneously on several fronts and deal with attacks of tens of thousands of rockets, precision missiles, and drones launched from across several borders, accompanied by a wave of terror from the West Bank.

Regarding Iran and Hizballah, [its foremost terror proxy], the strategic situation at the time of the 2006 Second Lebanon War has wholly changed. Hizballah’s power has grown exponentially; today, it has an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and precision missiles. Moreover, Hizballah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah claims he is not afraid of a military confrontation with Israel (while continuing to operate from a bunker deep under Beirut to avoid an Israeli attempt on his life).

Recent disturbances inside al-Aqsa mosque on the Temple Mount were planned and provoked by Hamas, [which has been in close contact with Hizballah]. As expected, Israeli police dispersed rioters by force, and the stark images of the clashes were quickly distributed on Hamas social media and beyond. The social-media posts triggered outrage and a call for revenge across the Muslim world. The Temple Mount violence also sought to ignite Israel’s Arab sector to riot as it did in May 2021 during the “Guardians of the Walls” military operation against Hamas in Gaza.

A senior [Israeli] security official says that the Axis of Resistance led by Iran is utterly wrong in its assessment of the situation regarding Israel’s national strength.

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.