As America becomes increasingly aware of the strategic danger posed by the People’s Republic of China, conventional wisdom gravitates toward the opinion that Washington must turn its attention away from other parts of the world and toward East Asia and the Pacific Rim. But such an approach misreads Xi Jinping’s goals. Yair Albeck explains:

In Beijing’s grand design, the Middle East plays an indispensable role. But Western analysts have often misjudged China’s interests in the region as purely commercial. While Xi values the region for its economic potential, he sees it as one of the most important arenas of competition with the United States.

In the United Arab Emirates, China has constructed facilities at Khalifa Port and a pipeline stretching from the major oil field in Habshan to the Port of Fujairah. China has also invested in the Duqm Port in Oman. These projects demonstrate China’s focus on bolstering its trade with the Gulf and ensuring the smooth flow of oil from the region. Consequently, it is emerging as a dominant player in renewable energy and a major participant in the fossil-fuels market.

These endeavors lay the groundwork for a prospective military presence, in accordance with Beijing’s long-articulated principle of “first civilian, then military.” Because the Middle East is vital for China’s energy future, this approach will further solidify China’s long-term energy security and improve its self-sufficiency.

To maintain its leadership role in the Middle East, the U.S. needs to demonstrate its commitment to ensuring the security of its allies in the region. To this end, Washington possesses one crucial advantage over Beijing: the ability to back its commitments with military power. This advantage should form the core of any long-term vision the U.S. presents to its regional partners. Washington should explain how it will ensure stability and prosperity, prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and stop Tehran’s proxy attacks on U.S. allies. Otherwise, the U.S. risks creating a vacuum that only Beijing can fill.

For more than a year, the Iran-backed Houthis have been launching drones and missiles at ships traversing the Red Sea, as well as at Israeli territory, in support of Hamas. This development has drastically curtailed shipping through the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, driving up trade prices. This week, the Trump administration began an extensive bombing campaign against the Houthis in an effort to reopen that crucial waterway. Burcu Ozcelik highlights another benefit of this action:

The administration has a broader geopolitical agenda—one that includes countering China’s economic leverage, particularly Beijing’s reliance on Iranian oil. By targeting the Houthis, the United States is not only safeguarding vital shipping lanes but also exerting pressure on the Iran-China energy nexus, a key component of Beijing’s strategic posture in the region.

China was the primary destination for up to 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports in 2024, underscoring the deepening economic ties between Beijing and Tehran despite U.S. sanctions. By helping fill Iranian coffers, China aids Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in financing proxies like the Houthis. Since October of last year, notable U.S. Treasury announcements have revealed covert links between China and the Houthis.

Striking the Houthis could trigger broader repercussions—not least by disrupting the flow of Iranian oil to China. While difficult to confirm, it is conceivable and has been reported, that the Houthis may have received financial or other forms of compensation from China (such as Chinese-made military components) in exchange for allowing freedom of passage for China-affiliated vessels in the Red Sea.