Over the course of the past fifteen years, Tehran has extended its complete or partial control over Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Its next target, writes Kenneth Pollack, is the kingdom of Jordan:

Jordan . . . borders Syria, where Iran already has large numbers of military personnel and a metastasizing network of bases, despite valiant Israeli efforts to stop it from spreading. Jordan also borders Iraq, where the government is ever more compromised and ever less able to prevent Iran from doing as it wishes—and where several thousand American troops are ever less relevant to the country’s political and military course. It also borders the West Bank, where violent Palestinian rejectionist groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad continue to operate with Iranian funding, weaponry, training, and advice.

So Iranian agents and proxies can now infiltrate Jordan from all three directions. Jordan also has the natural fissures that Iran loves to exploit. Jordan groans under roughly 3 million refugees living on the backs of about 8 million citizens. They come overwhelmingly from Iraq, Syria, and the West Bank, and like all refugees, their demeanor mostly runs from dejected to furious. This is perfect for recruitment by Iran and its allies.

Jordan’s loss to Iran would be catastrophic. It would allow Iran and its allies and proxies to use the highly developed Palestinian networks between Jordan and the West Bank—both malign and anodyne—to infiltrate Israel, inflame the West Bank Palestinians, and enable Hamas and other terrorist groups in Gaza.

And Iran’s victories in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen have whetted its appetite, not sated it.

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.