On Wednesday, the IDF chief-of-staff Herzi Halevi and President Isaac Herzog separately toured the country’s northern border, evidently to send a message to Hizballah. The Iran-backed organization has been constructing tents just inside Israeli territory and engaging in other provocative activities in violation of existing cease-fire agreements. To Meir Ben-Shabbat, the situation resembles that on the eve of the 2006 Second Lebanon War, which began when Hizballah operatives crossed the border and kidnapped two IDF soldiers:

It’s hard not to see the similarities between what happened back then, almost exactly seventeen years ago, and the unfolding reality today, especially in light of the footage showing the balaclava-wearing terrorists moving freely so close to the border and observing Israel without even an inkling of fear. Although security officials have stressed that these operatives were never in breach of the border and posed no danger, this is hardly reassuring. Moreover, such statements only reinforce the feeling that the deterrent effect has been disrupted in Hizballah’s favor.

The spate of provocations by Hizballah attests to Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s ever-increasing confidence. Not only has he ratcheted up his public threats, but he has also escalated the situation along the border by trying to push the envelope with Israel. While it is far from certain that he seeks a flare-up, what is abundantly clear is that Nasrallah has been less cautious in trying to avoid it.

Hizballah’s conduct along the northern border serves its goal of optimizing its operational position should hostilities break out, with a particular emphasis on preparing a ground incursion into Israel. The way Israel has so far responded to its provocations has only encouraged it to continue, and even ratchet up, [these activities]. In view of this reality, Israel has no choice but to act in a way that would make Nasrallah conquer his impulses.

Yesterday, the beepers used by hundreds of Hizballah operatives were detonated. Noah Rothman puts this ingenious attack in the context of the overall war between Israel and the Iran-backed terrorist group:

[W]hile the disabling of an untold number of Hizballah operatives is remarkable, it’s also ominous. This week, the Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant told reporters that the hour is nearing when Israeli forces will have to confront Iran’s cat’s-paw in southern Lebanon directly, in order to return the tens of thousands of Israelis who fled their homes along Lebanon’s border under fire and have not yet been able to return. Today’s operation may be a prelude to the next phase of Israel’s defensive war, a dangerous one in which the IDF will face off against an enemy with tens of thousands of fighters and over 150,000 rockets and missiles trained on Israeli cities.

Seth Frantzman, meanwhile, focuses on the specific damage the pager bombings have likely done to Hizballah:

This will put the men in hospital for a period of time. Some of them can go back to serving Hizballah, but they will not have access to one of their hands. These will most likely be their dominant hand, meaning the hand they’d also use to hold the trigger of a rifle or push the button to launch a missile.

Hizballah has already lost around 450 fighters in its eleven-month confrontation with Israel. This is a significant loss for the group. While Hizballah can replace losses, it doesn’t have an endlessly deep [supply of recruits]. This is not only because it has to invest in training and security ahead of recruitment, but also because it draws its recruits from a narrow spectrum of Lebanese society.

The overall challenge for Hizballah is not just replacing wounded and dead fighters. The group will be challenged to . . . roll out some other way to communicate with its men. The use of pagers may seem archaic, but Hizballah apparently chose to use this system because it assumed the network could not be penetrated. . . . It will also now be concerned about the penetration of its operational security. When groups like Hizballah are in chaos, they are more vulnerable to making mistakes.