Last week, the Canadian foreign minister announced that her country would halt all arms sales Israel, following a parliamentary resolution to that effect. The decision is primarily symbolic, since Canada imports far more in military equipment (including Iron Dome radar batteries, missiles, and naval craft) from Israel than it exports, and has no plans to stop. Yet Israeli diplomats fear it might pave the way for other countries to follow suit. The editors of the Jerusalem Post comment:

Canada’s decision also must bring joy to terrorist organizations worldwide searching for a winning strategy. They, too, are carefully watching the Israel-Hamas war. If these nefarious organizations see that the West is standing firmly with Israel, then that will send one message. If they see that through the cruel use of Palestinian human shields, however, Hamas can survive and murder more Jews and Israeli innocents, then they could be excused for saying to themselves, “This is a great game plan, and if it works for Hamas, it can work for us.”

Below, today’s newsletter will return to some other reflections on the one-year anniversary of the outbreak of the current war, but first something must be said of its recent progress. Israel has kept up its aerial and ground assault on Hizballah, and may have already killed the successor to Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader it eliminated less than two weeks ago. Matthew Levitt assesses the current state of the Lebanon-based terrorist group, which, in his view, is now “a shadow of its former self.” Indeed, he adds,

it is no exaggeration to say that the Hizballah of two weeks ago no longer exists. And since Hizballah was the backbone of Iran’s network of militant proxies, its so-called axis of resistance, Iran’s strategy of arming and deploying proxy groups throughout the region is suddenly at risk as well.

Hizballah’s attacks put increasing pressure on Israel, as intended, only that pressure did not lead Israelis to stop targeting Hamas so much as it chipped away at Israel’s fears about the cost of military action to address the military threats posed by Hizballah.

At the same time, Levitt explains, Hizballah still poses a serious threat, as it demonstrated last night when its missiles struck Haifa and Tiberias, injuring at least two people:

Hizballah still maintains an arsenal of rockets and a cadre of several thousand fighters. It will continue to pose potent military threats for Israel, Lebanon, and the wider region.

How will the group seek to avenge Nasrallah’s death amid these military setbacks? Hizballah is likely to resort to acts of international terrorism, which are overseen by one of the few elements of the group that has not yet lost key leaders.

But the true measure of whether the group will be able to reconstitute itself, even over many years, is whether Iran can restock Hizballah’s sophisticated arsenal. Tehran’s network of proxy groups—from Hizballah to Hamas to the Houthis—is only as dangerous as it is today because of Iran’s provision of weapons and money. Whatever Hizballah does next, Western governments must prioritize cutting off Tehran’s ability to arm and fund its proxies.