In a sense, the administration’s threats of an arms embargo, and its recent diplomatic blitz aimed at achieving a ceasefire deal, are part of a long line of hapless American initiatives to bring peace to Israelis and Palestinians, many of which have had bloodstained consequences. The British journal Fathom, in the first of a series of conversations with people involved in these efforts, speaks with Elliott Abrams, who played a role in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority during the George W. Bush administration. Abrams describes how disconnected these negotiations often were from reality, and the folly of pushing for a two-state solution in the near future. (Interview by Alan Johnson and Calev Ben-Dor. Video, 50 minutes. Audio-only format and a transcript are available at the link below.)

At the moment, Hizballah’s superiors in Tehran probably aren’t giving much thought to the militia’s next move. More likely, they are focused on the fact that their country’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, along with the foreign minister, may have been killed in a helicopter crash near the Iran-Azerbaijan border. Iranians set off fireworks to celebrate the possible death of this man known as “butcher of Tehran” for his role in executing dissidents. Shay Khatiri explains what will happen next:

If the president is dead or unable to perform his duties for longer than two months, the first vice-president, the speaker of the parliament, and the chief justice, with the consent of the supreme leader, form a council to choose the succession mechanism. In effect, this means that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will decide [how to proceed]. Either a new election is called, or Khamenei will dictate that the council chooses a single person to avoid an election in time of crisis.

Whatever happens next, however, Raisi’s “hard landing” will mark the first chapter in a game of musical chairs that will consume the Islamic Republic for months and will set the stage not only for the post-Raisi era, but the post-Khamenei one as well.

As for the inevitable speculation that Raisi’s death wasn’t an accident: everything I have read so far suggests that it was. Still, that its foremost enemy will be distracted by a succession struggle is good news for Israel. And it wouldn’t be terrible if Iran’s leaders suspect that the Mossad just might have taken out Raisi. For all their rhetoric about martyrdom, I doubt they relish the prospect of becoming martyrs themselves.