Earlier this month, Jordan experienced its largest act of terrorism in over a decade—an attack on an intelligence complex that resulted in five deaths. This was only the latest and most severe of a recent upsurge of such incidents in the kingdom, most of which have been linked to Islamic State (IS). David Schenker writes:

In November 2015, a Jordanian police officer killed two American and two South African trainers, as well as two of his fellow countrymen, at an international police-training facility in [the city of] Moaqar. More recently, this March, Jordanian counterterrorism forces raided an IS cell at a Palestinian camp in the northern town of Irbid, killing eight militants allegedly planning attacks against civilian and military targets.

Less widely publicized were several other terrorist plots interdicted by Jordanian security forces. In July 2015, for example, seven Jordanians were given lengthy jail sentences and a Syrian was sentenced in absentia for planning attacks on the Israeli embassy in Amman and on U.S. troops in Moaqar. . . .

An estimated 2,500 Jordanians have already joined the ranks of the foreign fighters in Syria.

Jordan is Washington’s best Arab ally and is a key partner in the campaign against IS in Syria, providing the U.S. and other western states with airbases and other critical operational support. More importantly, King Abdullah of Jordan has been a leading voice of regional moderation [and] in countering the IS/al-Qaeda [worldview]. Recognizing the import of the kingdom, the U.S. provides it with over $1 billion in annual economic and military assistance, as well as in support for the absorption of refugees.

At this point, however, money alone is not the answer to Jordan’s terrorist problem. Five years into the revolt, the Obama administration’s continued indifference to Syria is having a pernicious impact on security in the kingdom. The longer the war in Syria persists, the more danger militant Islamist ideological spillover poses to Jordan.

While conventional wisdom in the Western press believes that the war with Hamas has left Jerusalem more isolated and scuttled chances of expanding the Abraham Accords, Gabriel Scheinmann points to a very different reality. He begins with Iran’s massive drone and missile attack on Israel last month, and the coalition that helped defend against it:

America’s Arab allies had, in various ways, provided intelligence and allowed U.S. and Israeli planes to operate in their airspace. Jordan, which has been vociferously attacking Israel’s conduct in Gaza for months, even publicly acknowledged that it shot down incoming Iranian projectiles. When the chips were down, the Arab coalition held and made clear where they stood in the broader Iranian war on Israel.

The successful batting away of the Iranian air assault also engendered awe in Israel’s air-defense capabilities, which have performed marvelously throughout the war. . . . Israel’s response to the Iranian night of missiles should give further courage to Saudi Arabia to codify its alignment. Israel . . . telegraphed clearly to Tehran that it could hit precise targets without its aircraft being endangered and that the threshold of a direct Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear or other sites had been breached.

The entire episode demonstrated that Israel can both hit Iranian sites and defend against an Iranian response. At a time when the United States is focused on de-escalation and restraint, Riyadh could see quite clearly that only Israel has both the capability and the will to deal with the Iranian threat.

It is impossible to know whether the renewed U.S.-Saudi-Israel negotiations will lead to a normalization deal in the immediate months ahead. . . . Regardless of the status of this deal, [however], or how difficult the war in Gaza may appear, America’s Arab allies have now become Israel’s.