Another U.S.-backed ceasefire, which began in Syria on Monday, held for no more than a few hours. Tom Rogan explains why no one should be surprised:

[The ceasefire] is simply another episode in Vladimir Putin’s long-running manipulation game. Consider how the Russia-Assad-Iran axis acted this past weekend. On Saturday, re-emphasizing its disdain for humanitarianism, the axis bombed a crowded market in the city of Idlib. Around 50 civilians were killed. Consider, too, the ongoing deployment of axis forces into the stranglehold of rebel-held eastern Aleppo. Putin and his allies do not seek peace. As things stand, Putin holds the strategic initiative in Syria. . . .

[N]ow, the ceasefire means that rebel offensives against Bashar al-Assad will stall and the axis position will only strengthen. . . .

[A]fter President Obama and the EU react positively to the pretense of peace, the Russians will use massive air power against moderate rebel groups. They’ll do so claiming that they were targeting Jabhat Fateh al-Sham [an al-Qaeda affiliate, formerly known as Nusra Front], but that will only be the pretense. This will be a very one-sided ceasefire. By the time that truth becomes clear, it will already be too late. The moderate rebels will have been degraded, and Russia will have scored another hammer blow against U.S. credibility in the Middle East.

Remember: degrading our credibility is a focal point of Putin’s overarching strategy to displace American influence around the world.

While conventional wisdom in the Western press believes that the war with Hamas has left Jerusalem more isolated and scuttled chances of expanding the Abraham Accords, Gabriel Scheinmann points to a very different reality. He begins with Iran’s massive drone and missile attack on Israel last month, and the coalition that helped defend against it:

America’s Arab allies had, in various ways, provided intelligence and allowed U.S. and Israeli planes to operate in their airspace. Jordan, which has been vociferously attacking Israel’s conduct in Gaza for months, even publicly acknowledged that it shot down incoming Iranian projectiles. When the chips were down, the Arab coalition held and made clear where they stood in the broader Iranian war on Israel.

The successful batting away of the Iranian air assault also engendered awe in Israel’s air-defense capabilities, which have performed marvelously throughout the war. . . . Israel’s response to the Iranian night of missiles should give further courage to Saudi Arabia to codify its alignment. Israel . . . telegraphed clearly to Tehran that it could hit precise targets without its aircraft being endangered and that the threshold of a direct Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear or other sites had been breached.

The entire episode demonstrated that Israel can both hit Iranian sites and defend against an Iranian response. At a time when the United States is focused on de-escalation and restraint, Riyadh could see quite clearly that only Israel has both the capability and the will to deal with the Iranian threat.

It is impossible to know whether the renewed U.S.-Saudi-Israel negotiations will lead to a normalization deal in the immediate months ahead. . . . Regardless of the status of this deal, [however], or how difficult the war in Gaza may appear, America’s Arab allies have now become Israel’s.