France’s Political Upheaval and What It Portends for the Jews

The campaign for France’s upcoming national elections—which occur on April 23 and May 7—has already made clear that the country is undergoing a political realignment as unexpected as those in the U.S. and UK, and perhaps with even more far-reaching consequences. In an in-depth and informative analysis of the current situation and its causes, Michel Gurfinkiel notes how Jews play into the current conversation:

Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry, who served as editor at Atlantico, a major conservative online magazine, recently remarked that Jews function in many countries as an advance-warning system. When Jews get anxious about their condition, it means that something wrong and ominous may be lurking for the nation at large. Can this Jewish standard be applied to the present situation of France? Maybe. Muslim anti-Semitism (with or without the excuse of anti-Zionism) has been a harbinger of more general Muslim antagonism to mainstream French culture. Repeated acts of anti-Jewish terrorism preceded the anti-French terrorism wave of 2015 and 2016.

By this token, the 2017 presidential campaign is not entirely reassuring. Globalization, the original sin according to both the far left and far right, is frequently associated with the United States, the West—and the Jews. . . . Donald Trump may be an America Firster, but he is also a friend of Israel, the father of an Orthodox Jewish daughter and the “proud grandfather,” to quote him, “of Jewish grandchildren.” In the [French] order of things, French Muslims may support, indiscriminately, Islamic State or Palestinian groups or Iran or Assad’s Syria as expressions of Muslim power, while many non-Muslim French may support Iran or Hizballah or Assad’s Syria as allies against Islamic State.

As for the rise of [the maverick, economically liberal candidate Emmanuel] Macron, it fits only too well many stereotypes about elites, bankers, cosmopolitanism, conspiracies, or what the Americans call “Manchurian candidates.” Again, these stereotypes tend to include Jews as well. A conservative website recently ran a caricature of Macron as a former Rothschild banker, [which he is], that exaggerated some of his facial features, clearly to suggest, against all the evidence, that he is Jewish. It was swiftly withdrawn, but the damage was done.

Read more at Standpoint

More about: Anti-Semitism, European Islam, France, French Jewry, Politics & Current Affairs

To Save Gaza, the U.S. Needs a Strategy to Restrain Iran

Since the outbreak of war on October 7, America has given Israel much support, and also much advice. Seth Cropsey argues that some of that advice hasn’t been especially good:

American demands for “restraint” and a “lighter footprint” provide significant elements of Hamas’s command structure, including Yahya Sinwar, the architect of 10/7, a far greater chance of surviving and preserving the organization’s capabilities. Its threat will persist to some extent in any case, since it has significant assets in Lebanon and is poised to enter into a full-fledged partnership with Hizballah that would give it access to Lebanon’s Palestinian refugee camps for recruitment and to Iranian-supported ratlines into Jordan and Syria.

Turning to the aftermath of the war, Cropsey observes that it will take a different kind of involvement for the U.S. to get the outcomes it desires, namely an alternative to Israeli and to Hamas rule in Gaza that comes with buy-in from its Arab allies:

The only way that Gaza can be governed in a sustainable and stable manner is through the participation of Arab states, and in particular the Gulf Arabs, and the only power that can deliver their participation is the United States. A grand bargain is impossible unless the U.S. exerts enough leverage to induce one.

Militarily speaking, the U.S. has shown no desire seriously to curb Iranian power. It has persistently signaled a desire to avoid escalation. . . . The Gulf Arabs understand this. They have no desire to engage in serious strategic dialogue with Washington and Jerusalem over Iran strategy, since Washington does not have an Iran strategy.

Gaza’s fate is a small part of a much broader strategic struggle. Unless this is recognized, any diplomatic master plan will degenerate into a diplomatic parlor game.

Read more at National Review

More about: Gaza War 2023, Iran, U.S. Foreign policy