Iran Never Converted a Key Nuclear-Weapons Site into a Civilian Facility. (But It Did Equip It with Sophisticated Missiles)

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—as the 2015 nuclear deal is formally known—required the Islamic Republic to convert its Fordow uranium-enrichment facility to a “nuclear, physics, and technology center” for international civilian scientific cooperation. Thanks to the cache of documents the Mossad spirited out of Iran last year, there is no longer any doubt that this heavily fortified facility, long kept secret, had been designed for the production of weapons-grade nuclear fuel. Drawing on publicly available information, including satellite images, David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Frank Pabian, and Jack Toole conclude that Tehran had no intention of converting the complex into anything else:

Since the implementation of the JCPOA [in 2016], Iran has been bolstering its ability to build gas centrifuges [in the complex’s aboveground] support area, while maintaining its capability to produce weapons-grade uranium in the tunnel complex [below]. In an ominous development, Iran recently announced the opening of key new centers at the support area.

[Even before the U.S. left the nuclear deal], high levels of activity had been observed at the Fordow support area. Additions to the area include the 2016 installation of a Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile system and the construction of several building complexes.

[T]here is little reason to believe that Iran ever intended any meaningful conversion of the Fordow tunnel complex into a technical and scientific international center of cooperation, let alone the closely associated support area. This deeply buried gas-centrifuge tunnel complex is too important to Iran, since it can be reconstituted if the deal fails. It can also be reverted . . . to its original purpose of making weapons-grade uranium for nuclear weapons. With a complex specifically built so that it would be extremely difficult to destroy by military action, the international community could face few options if Iran does choose to move to much higher enrichment at Fordow.

Read more at Institute for Science and International Security

More about: Iran nuclear program, Russia, U.S. Foreign policy

For the Sake of Gaza, Defeat Hamas Soon

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.

Read more at Commentary

More about: Gaza War 2023, Hamas, Joseph Biden