So far, the most significant event in the Middle East of 2021 has been the formal end to the diplomatic conflict that pitted Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain against Qatar. Alberto M. Fernandez is hopeful about the improvement in relations, but uncertain as to its longevity:

[T]here is much good that could come out of a real reconciliation. The dispute was expensive for both sides, disrupted trade and economic ties, encouraged regional meddling, and generally introduced additional elements of instability and tension into an already unstable region. But was [the step] a true breakthrough, or was it more a pause in what will turn out to be a longer struggle for power?

Certainly, the countries that pushed for this step the most—Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, rather than the United States—are hoping for the best. But I am skeptical because there is a basic problem that has not and probably cannot be resolved: . . . Qatar’s great success in power projection through its Faustian alliance with the partisans of political Islam, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, in the region. This is a fateful relationship seen as a threat by several of its neighbors.

Qatar’s role as the bankroller and backstop of Islamist movements and states (Erdogan’s Turkey and Hamas-ruled Gaza) has brought it regional power. Qatar is a tiny country—it has more Indians and Bangladeshis than Qatari citizens, who constitute only 12 percent of their own country’s population—but it has gained great influence through an adept combination of money, media, and politics. One can decry such an outcome while at the same time marveling that it has proven to be so wildly successful.

Observing some of the recent commentary found in Qatar’s powerful media empire—which includes the anti-American and anti-Semitic Al Jazeera—Fernandez detects many signs the peninsular emirate has not changed its tune.

Yesterday, the Iranian foreign minister flew to Geneva to meet with European diplomats. President Trump, meanwhile, indicated that cease-fire negotiations might soon begin with Iran, which would presumably involve Tehran agreeing to make concessions regarding its nuclear program, while Washington pressures Israel to halt its military activities. According to Israeli media, Iran already began putting out feelers to the U.S. earlier this week. Aviram Bellaishe considers the purpose of these overtures:

The regime’s request to return to negotiations stems from the principle of deception and delay that has guided it for decades. Iran wants to extricate itself from a situation of total destruction of its nuclear facilities. It understands that to save the nuclear program, it must stop at a point that would allow it to return to it in the shortest possible time. So long as the negotiation process leads to halting strikes on its military capabilities and preventing the destruction of the nuclear program, and enables the transfer of enriched uranium to a safe location, it can simultaneously create the two tracks in which it specializes—a false facade of negotiations alongside a hidden nuclear race.