Last week, Iran held a fifth round of talks with Saudi Arabia, in what appears to be an attempt by the two archenemies to settle their differences. The United States, meanwhile, is frustrated with Riyadh’s refusal to increase its petroleum production to make up for Russian oil being taken off the market due to the war in Ukraine. In conversation with Michael Doran and Marshall Kosloff, Mohammed Khalid Alyahya explains that in both cases the kingdom is hedging its bets, concluding from Washington’s behavior over the past decade that America is simply not a reliable ally. Alyahya, elaborating on a recent column, argues that the Saudis want nothing more than to be brought back into the American fold, and to see the U.S. take a firm stand against Iran and its strategy of sowing chaos and creating endless wars throughout the Middle East. (Audio, 43 minutes.)

While conventional wisdom in the Western press believes that the war with Hamas has left Jerusalem more isolated and scuttled chances of expanding the Abraham Accords, Gabriel Scheinmann points to a very different reality. He begins with Iran’s massive drone and missile attack on Israel last month, and the coalition that helped defend against it:

America’s Arab allies had, in various ways, provided intelligence and allowed U.S. and Israeli planes to operate in their airspace. Jordan, which has been vociferously attacking Israel’s conduct in Gaza for months, even publicly acknowledged that it shot down incoming Iranian projectiles. When the chips were down, the Arab coalition held and made clear where they stood in the broader Iranian war on Israel.

The successful batting away of the Iranian air assault also engendered awe in Israel’s air-defense capabilities, which have performed marvelously throughout the war. . . . Israel’s response to the Iranian night of missiles should give further courage to Saudi Arabia to codify its alignment. Israel . . . telegraphed clearly to Tehran that it could hit precise targets without its aircraft being endangered and that the threshold of a direct Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear or other sites had been breached.

The entire episode demonstrated that Israel can both hit Iranian sites and defend against an Iranian response. At a time when the United States is focused on de-escalation and restraint, Riyadh could see quite clearly that only Israel has both the capability and the will to deal with the Iranian threat.

It is impossible to know whether the renewed U.S.-Saudi-Israel negotiations will lead to a normalization deal in the immediate months ahead. . . . Regardless of the status of this deal, [however], or how difficult the war in Gaza may appear, America’s Arab allies have now become Israel’s.