Beijing’s expanding role in the Middle East has of late received much attention. China imports nearly half its oil from the monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula, has been helping Saudia Arabia and the United Arab Emirates develop nuclear technology, and brokered an agreement between Riyadh and Tehran. But 2023 has also seen visits to the Persian Gulf by the prime ministers of Japan, South Korea, and India. Jonathan Fulton comments:

In 2013, China’s import of Gulf crude oil was valued at $61.3 billion. Other Asian powers were not far behind. Also in 2013, Gulf oil exports to Japan were valued at $38 billion and represented 90 percent of its oil imports, India imported $25 billion in Gulf oil (52 percent of its crude imports), and Korea imported $25 billion of Gulf oil, representing over 80 percent of Korea’s crude imports.

The geopolitical [implications] are important. Japan, India, and Korea each have a different relationship with Beijing, while sharing concerns about China’s political and economic practices and its vision for international order. The three have much to offer the Gulf countries in their developmental agendas. And all are aligned with Washington (though India less so). As great-power competition comes to the Gulf, inter-Asian rivalries will be an important new dynamic for the region.

That [the three] are U.S. allies and partners with shared concerns about China’s approach to the international order indicates that there is room for cooperation among them in coordinating their Gulf policies. One example of this potential is the I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, and U.S.) initiative, which provides a glimpse of what greater Asian participation in Middle Eastern affairs could look like.

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.