Whatever the outcome of the Gaza war in the coming weeks, it has already led to the decimation of Hamas’s military strength, the destruction of the Strip’s cities, economic ruination, and thousands of deaths. Even in a worst-case scenario, it won’t result in the elimination of Israel that—as we now know from captured Hamas files—the terrorists had planned for. One might think, then, that Palestinian leaders could come to believe that such violent onslaughts are simply bad strategy. Unfortunately, Shany Mor argues that it is just as likely that, twenty years from now, little will have changed.

Failing to learn these lessons would simply continue the cycle of ecstasy and amnesia that, as Mor explained in an essay for Mosaic shortly after the war began, has characterized the Israel-Palestinian conflict since at least 1947. Now, he revisits his essay in conversation with Eylon Levy, a former English-language spokesman for the Israeli government. (Video, 42 minutes. Audio-only can be found on the usual podcast platforms.)

Israel’s goals of freeing the hostages and defeating Hamas (the latter necessary to prevent further hostage taking) are to some extent contradictory, since Yahya Sinwar, the ruler of the Gaza Strip, will only turn over hostages in exchange for concessions. But Jacob Nagel remains convinced that Jerusalem should continue to pursue both goals:

Only consistent military pressure on Hamas can lead to the hostages’ release, either through negotiation or military operation. There’s little chance of reaching a deal with Hamas using current approaches, including the latest Egyptian proposal. Israeli concessions would only encourage further pressure from Hamas.

There is no incentive for Hamas to agree to a deal, especially since it believes it can achieve its full objectives without one. Unfortunately, many contribute to this belief, mainly from outside of Israel, but also from within.

Recent months saw Israel mistakenly refraining from entering Rafah for several reasons. Initially, the main [reason was to try] to negotiate a deal with Hamas. However, as it became clear that Hamas was uninterested, and its only goal was to return to its situation before October 7—where Hamas and its leadership control Gaza, Israeli forces are out, and there are no changes in the borders—the deal didn’t mature.