Whatever dedication, resources, or creative thinking the Trump administration might bring to bear in trying to resolving the Israel-Palestinian conflict, writes Clifford May, the circumstances for success are, at the moment, simply absent:

Israeli leaders from Labor on the left to Likud on the right are convinced that the withdrawal of their military forces from the West Bank would leave a vacuum—and that jihadists would fill it.

Consider the precedents. In 2005, every Israeli soldier and settler was pulled out of Gaza. Within two years, Hamas had taken control and begun launching missiles at Israeli villages and cities. . . . Five years earlier, the Israelis withdrew from southern Lebanon. That strengthened Hizballah, Iran’s proxy, with whom other wars had to be fought, the last in 2006. . . . Back in 1982, as part of a historic peace agreement signed a few years earlier, Israelis handed the Sinai peninsula over to Egypt. Today, a branch of Islamic State wages an insurgency there. . . .

The Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas—who turns eighty-two this month—does not appear to share Hamas’s religious [dedication to Israel’s eradication]. But were he to end his long career by shaking Netanyahu’s hand on the White House lawn, he’d be labeled a traitor, not just by Hamas but also by those seeking to succeed him in the West Bank, as well as by the Islamic Republic of Iran which, as a direct result of President Obama’s policies, is currently the ascendant power in the Middle East. All this suggests that now is not the time for dramatic diplomatic initiatives. Significant changes will occur once Abbas passes from the scene. American policymakers should be getting ready.

Meanwhile, it’s worth prodding the Palestinians to develop the institutions that both define and sustain true statehood. Lacking those, they will remain dependent on the “donor community” [consisting of the U.S., Europe, and some Arab states] indefinitely. Worse, a Palestinian state could arise, achieve recognition—and then fail. Who would benefit from that?

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.