When the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear deal and renewed sanctions on the Islamic Republic, many asserted that the new measures could never have the effect of those in place during the pre-deal years, since European nations would not join in enforcing them. The Europeans have, in fact, held fast to the agreement, but, notes Patrick Clawson, European corporations are far from eager to do business in Iran. Furthermore, he writes, the U.S. can make serious trouble for Tehran by going after its financial institutions, which are already in a precarious state:

The Islamic Republic’s banking problems go well beyond . . . concerns about money laundering and terrorism financing. For one, few Iranian banks comply with international standards for preventing tax avoidance by foreign depositors. Thus, any international banks that deal with noncompliant Iranian institutions can be ordered to pay the U.S. income tax owed by depositors. Iranian banks also acknowledge that they do not meet the 8-percent “minimum capital-adequacy ratio” required by [international banking regulations], forcing any foreign banks that do business with them to take stringent precautions. . . .

Iran’s banks are also trapped by the government’s precarious finances. . . . To make matters worse, banks face competition from Iran’s many “credit institutions”—a euphemism for what began as unregulated banks set up by politically well-connected figures. . . . In his December budget speech, President Rouhani stated that six of these institutions control an astonishing one-fourth of Iran’s money market. . . . [M]any of these entities are basically Ponzi schemes, paying extremely high rates on deposits but with little prospect of being able to match them by earning similar interest on loans. . . .

Unlike in 2012, banks, not oil exports, are the Iranian regime’s greatest economic vulnerability. The more these banks are isolated from the global financial system, the more difficulty they will have gaining the confidence of Iranians and raising the funds they need. With banks starved of capital, the government has been forced to take or contemplate controversial measures such as cutting spending, driving up the rial/dollar exchange rate (which raises the amount of rials the government gets from oil exports), and printing more money. Yet each of these measures could cause major political problems at home by exacerbating inflation, undercutting confidence in the rial, or otherwise stoking resentment among the general public.

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.