Among the many forces that have vied for power in the Syrian civil war is the Nusra Front, a local franchise of al-Qaeda. In 2016 it changed its name to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and repositioned itself as an independent organization that remained dedicated to jihad and an extremist interpretation of Islam. Whether this was a real break with the parent organization or merely a public-relations exercise remains unclear. The group now has thousands of fighters holed up in the Syrian province of Idlib, where they are under sustained assault from Bashar al-Assad and his allies. Eli Galia and Yoram Schweitzer discuss their fate:

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will [likely] face two main options: one is to fight to the bitter end, followed by the break-up of an organization that is built on a strong chain of command and structured hierarchy into a network of autonomous guerrilla and terrorist cells that would operate in northwestern Syria. This would mean postponing the realization of [its goal of] territorial control of a piece of land under an Islamic way of life. . . . Its cells [would] continue to operate on both sides of the Syria-Iraq border, attacking . . . military targets and even essential infrastructure sites such as oil fields and natural-gas facilities. There would then be military instability and a lack of security in northwestern Syria for an extended period of time.

The second option is a conscious decision to dissolve the organization and merge its operatives within other Islamist and revolutionary frameworks as part of a future political arrangement [in Syria]. This step, even if it is considered drastic, could, in accordance with the circumstances, be based on pragmatic reasoning as well as ideological considerations.

For Israel, the fate of jihadists in Idlib is not an immediate source of military concern. There is the possibility, [however], that groups from the jihadist camp will relocate to [the Syrian portion of] the Golan Heights, or an enclave of such forces [could] remain holed up in remote places in the Syrian desert far from Israel’s borders. Another disturbing possibility is well-trained jihadist forces fleeing Syria to various places around the world and reinforcing the manpower serving the global jihadist camp. If there is a renewed international wave of terrorist attacks, “Syrian alumni” could also pose a danger to Israeli and Jewish targets abroad.

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.