Despite ample assistance from Iran and Russia, and after over a decade of fighting, Bashar al-Assad has regained control over a mere 60 percent of his country. The Syria he now rules has a different makeup than the one he inherited from his father, in part due to loss of territory and mass flight, but also due to deliberate attempts by Tehran to create a Shiite population susceptible to its ideological agenda. Lilach Shoval explains:

In 2011, Syria was home to 21.3 million residents—59 percent Sunni Muslim, 11 percent Alawite Muslim [like Assad himself], and only 4 percent Shiite. However, the territory currently under Assad’s control is home to only 10 million people, with Shiite Muslims making up 10 percent of the population and Alawites 30 percent. . . . Many of the Shiite Muslims in Syria live in the southern part of the country—the Syrian Golan Heights on the border with Israel.

Meanwhile, as the war nears an end, civilian distress is growing. Young people are leaving Syria, and poverty is rife. Past experience has taught us that terrorist instigators are able to take advantage of civilian distress through charity organizations that provide food and fuel, thus winning the people’s hearts. This is how Hizballah operated in Lebanon and what Hamas does in the Gaza Strip.

Unsurprisingly, Iran is trying to use the situation in Syria to its own advantage, not necessarily with the assent of Assad, who opted for Russia as his ally in the war rather than Iran. Iran’s terrorist operations have a fertile recruiting ground in the Syrian Shiite population, and according to Israeli estimates, a few hundred individuals have already been recruited by Hizballah or Iran and its satellites.

It’s not certain whether the Israeli defense and security establishment is fully aware of the demographic trends under way.

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.