Two Tents Along the Israel-Lebanon Border Are More Than Meets the Eye

Last month, Hizballah operatives set up two tents on the southern side of the Blue Line, the de-facto border the UN established between Israel and Lebanon after the IDF withdrew completely from the country in 2000. Jerusalem filed a formal complaint with the UN, which in turn sent its peacekeepers to investigate. So far, only one of the tents has been removed. The Institute for National Security Studies explains:

Hizballah’s erection of the tents and its determination not to remove them reflect a recent rise in the organization’s confidence and its increased boldness vis-à-vis Israel, along with a willingness to take risks. Incidents from the last few months reflect this clearly, [such as] the terrorist attack at Megiddo Junction by a Palestinian attacker who infiltrated from the northern border (March 13), and the rocket fire from Lebanon (April 6).

It seems that Hizballah is spurred by its mistaken understanding that the internal difficulties in Israel since the establishment of the current government reflect weakness, and that Israel does not have an interest at the current time in conducting a campaign against it. In our understanding, Hizballah is also not interested in a large-scale military campaign but interprets the developments as an opportunity for it to improve the balance of deterrence against the IDF and to expand its presence in southern Lebanon and its grip on the border.

Israel must use every possible means to remove the Hizballah tents at Har Dov, and for two main reasons. On the ground, Israel must stop Hizballah’s efforts to expand its presence next to the border. Hizballah is trying gradually to create a new reality, while penetrating into Israel’s sovereign territory—a situation that Israel cannot accept. On the strategic level, Israel must demonstrate force and determination in order to improve the balance of deterrence versus Hizballah in Israel’s favor, after it has eroded recently.

Read more at Institute for National Security Studies

More about: Hizballah, Israeli Security, Lebanon, United Nations

Egypt Is Trapped by the Gaza Dilemma It Helped to Create

Feb. 14 2025

Recent satellite imagery has shown a buildup of Egyptian tanks near the Israeli border, in violation of Egypt-Israel agreements going back to the 1970s. It’s possible Cairo wants to prevent Palestinians from entering the Sinai from Gaza, or perhaps it wants to send a message to the U.S. that it will take all measures necessary to keep that from happening. But there is also a chance, however small, that it could be preparing for something more dangerous. David Wurmser examines President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi’s predicament:

Egypt’s abysmal behavior in allowing its common border with Gaza to be used for the dangerous smuggling of weapons, money, and materiel to Hamas built the problem that exploded on October 7. Hamas could arm only to the level that Egypt enabled it. Once exposed, rather than help Israel fix the problem it enabled, Egypt manufactured tensions with Israel to divert attention from its own culpability.

Now that the Trump administration is threatening to remove the population of Gaza, President Sisi is reaping the consequences of a problem he and his predecessors helped to sow. That, writes Wurmser, leaves him with a dilemma:

On one hand, Egypt fears for its regime’s survival if it accepts Trump’s plan. It would position Cairo as a participant in a second disaster, or nakba. It knows from its own history; King Farouk was overthrown in 1952 in part for his failure to prevent the first nakba in 1948. Any leader who fails to stop a second nakba, let alone participates in it, risks losing legitimacy and being seen as weak. The perception of buckling on the Palestine issue also resulted in the Egyptian president Anwar Sadat’s assassination in 1981. President Sisi risks being seen by his own population as too weak to stand up to Israel or the United States, as not upholding his manliness.

In a worst-case scenario, Wurmser argues, Sisi might decide that he’d rather fight a disastrous war with Israel and blow up his relationship with Washington than display that kind of weakness.

Read more at The Editors

More about: Egypt, Gaza War 2023