Since Spain’s withdrawal from the territory in 1975, Western Sahara has been disputed by Morocco, Mauritania, and an indigenous revolutionary group called the Polisario Front, which has proclaimed a sovereign Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). Yechiel Leiter highlights some telling facts about this statelet:

In 2020, the Polisario broke the 29-year-old ceasefire with renewed terror attacks on Moroccan installations. In an effort led by Algeria, Cuba, Iran, Mauritania, and Syria, a total of 46 countries have to date recognized the SADR.

Meanwhile, Jerusalem and Rabat have been growing closer since the renewal of diplomatic relations in 2020. Leiter argues that Israel should now follow America’s example and recognize Moroccan sovereignty in Western Sahara:

Israel must work to solidify and expand, in particular, its existing Abraham Accords agreement with Morocco. The genius of the Abraham Accords was their formal expression of what was sensed by Arab states in the region but had been left unspoken. Mutual national interests far exceed the Palestinian issue in their importance. Partnership and collaboration in stopping the spread of radicalism through the long arm of Iran are top among them.

To its east, [Morocco] shares a long border with Algeria, an ally of Iran, which directly threatens it militarily and through its support for Polisario separatism. Polisario headquarters are located in Tindouf, Algeria, where 100,000 Sahrawis live. Were the Polisario to achieve its goal, it would be nothing more than an Algerian puppet state contributing to strengthening an Iranian proxy with growing influence in countries across the sub-Sahara. Algeria’s military strength and ideological influence need to be mitigated, not augmented, and certainly not at the expense of a Western ally. To the south, Morocco is bordered by Mauritania, presently governed by an Islamist-leaning regime that is hostile to Israel and the West and which similarly needs no strengthening.

The Polisario represents the lethal connection between separatism and terrorism, a legacy of Marxist-Leninist revolutionary movements now supported by Tehran. . . . Morocco has thwarted many terrorist attacks against European countries by home-grown Islamists. Morocco’s battle against the Polisario and terrorism is also Israel’s battle.

Last week, Jordanian police arrested sixteen members of the country’s branch of the Muslim Brotherhood for acquiring explosives, trying to manufacture drones, and planning rocket attacks. The cell was likely working in coordination with Hamas (the Palestinian offshoot of the Brotherhood) and Hizballah, and perhaps receiving funding from Iran. Ghaith al-Omari provides some background:

The Brotherhood has been active in Jordan since the 1940s, and its relations with the government remained largely cooperative for decades even as other political parties were banned in the 1950s. In exchange, the Brotherhood usually (but not always) supported the palace’s foreign policy and security measures, particularly against Communist and socialist parties.

Relations became more adversarial near the turn of the century after the Brotherhood vociferously opposed the 1994 peace treaty with Israel. The Arab Spring movement that emerged in 2011 saw further deterioration. Unlike other states in the region, however, Jordan did not completely crack down on the MB, instead seeking to limit its influence.

Yet the current Gaza war has seen another escalation, with the MB repeatedly accusing the government of cooperating with Israel and not doing enough to support the Palestinians.

Jordanian security circles are particularly worried about the MB’s vocal wartime identification with Hamas, an organization that was considered such a grave security threat that it was expelled from the kingdom in 1999. The sentiment among many Jordanian officials is that the previous lenient approach failed to change the MB’s behavior, emboldening the group instead.