For the past few days—as the IDF closes in on Gaza City—the word ceasefire has everywhere been on the lips, placards, and tweets of the more moderate defenders of Hamas in West. It is generally assumed that it is something that can be imposed on Israel from Washington, and it’s not clear if its advocates also expect Hamas to cease firing rockets. Matthew Continetti comments:

A ceasefire would be worse than useless. If Israel were to end combat operations now, with Hamas in control of the Gaza Strip and captives hidden in the maze of tunnels known as the Gaza Metro, then the terrorists will score a remarkable victory. Harassment and attacks on Jews worldwide will surge.

Hamas will regroup. Its strategy of using civilians as pawns in a chess match for global opinion will have proven effective once again. Its ranks will swell. It will plot its next move. “Al-Aqsa Deluge”—Hamas’s name for its October 7 crime against humanity—“is just the first time,” Ghazi Hamad, a Hamas factotum, said on Lebanese television the other day. “And there will be a second, a third, a fourth.”

At an event in Minnesota on Wednesday, a deranged heckler screamed at President Biden to impose a ceasefire. Biden could have stayed silent. He could have told off the heckler by detailing Hamas’s evil—yes, evil—acts and by saying America will stand with Israel in this existential struggle. Instead he told the crowd that “I think we need a pause. A pause means give time to get the prisoners out.” That is the message Secretary of State Antony Blinken will convey to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

A “pause” is nothing less than a short-lived ceasefire. And for Biden, a mini-ceasefire is an excuse. It is his way of playing for time, of getting the left off his back. It won’t work.

Information about a supposedly near-finalized hostage deal continued to trickle out yesterday. While it’s entirely possible that by the time you read this a deal will be much more certain, it is every bit as likely that it will have fallen through by then. More likely still, we will learn that there are indefinite and unspecified delays. Then there are the details: even in the best of scenarios, not all the hostages will be returned at once, and Israel will have to make painful concessions in exchange, including the release of hundreds of hardened terrorists and the withdrawal from key parts of the Gaza Strip.

Unusually—if entirely appropriately—the president-elect’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, has participated in the talks alongside members of President Biden’s team. Philip Klein examines the incoming Trump administration’s role in the process:

President-elect Trump has repeatedly warned that there would be “all hell to pay” if hostages were not returned from Gaza by the time he takes office. While he has never laid out exactly what the specific consequences for Hamas would be, there are some ominous signs that Israel is being pressured into paying a tremendous price.

There is obviously more here than we know. It’s possible that with the pressure from the Trump team came reassurances that Israel would have more latitude to reenter Gaza as necessary to go after Hamas than it would have enjoyed under Biden. . . . That said, all appearances are that Israel has been forced into making more concessions because Trump was concerned that he’d be embarrassed if January 20 came around with no hostages released.

While Donald Trump’s threats are a welcome rhetorical shift, part of the problem may be their vagueness. After all, it’s unlikely the U.S. would use military force to unleash hell in Gaza, or could accomplish much in doing so that the IDF can’t. More useful would be direct threats against countries like Qatar and Turkey that host Hamas, and threats to the persons and bank accounts of the Hamas officials living in those counties. Witkoff instead praised the Qatari prime minister for “doing God’s work” in the negotiations.”