During the three-week lull between the October 7 massacres and the beginning of the IDF ground offensive, there was some concern that Israel was deterred from attacking because of the presence of hostages in Gaza, or American pressure, or the threat of Iranian escalation, or perhaps sheer indecision. Frederick Kagan dispels all these suggestions in this conversation with Dan Senor, explaining why careful preparation was necessary, the strategic logic of the Israeli campaign against Hamas, and the challenges it involves. (Audio, 51 minutes.)

Senor and Kagan also speculate about the likely contents of the much-hyped speech Friday afternoon by Hizballah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah. After the speech, Senor recorded another interview, this time with the veteran Hizballah expert Matthew Levitt, which I also recommend listening to. The main takeaway: Nasrallah wants to show that Hizballah is contributing to Hamas’s fight, but is afraid of a major escalation, and doesn’t want to be dragged in. (Audio, 18 minutes.)

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.