If the ICJ verdict is a tactical success in the midst of a strategic defeat, a recent warning to the Jewish state from an anonymous senior Emirati official is the reverse. The official told a journalist on Wednesday that if the Gaza War drags on, relations between Jerusalem and Dubai could devolve into a “cold peace.” (To recall what that would mean, look no further than Jordan, whose security concerns are deeply tied up with Israel’s and where a restaurant recently opened with the name “October 7.” The name was taken off the establishment after photographs drew Western attention.) The warmth of the peace with the UAE has so far distinguished it from previous treaties with Arab states.

Yet the fact that this warning is off the record, and its implication that severing relations isn’t up for consideration, point to the durability of Israel’s new regional alliances. Edward Luttwak argues that, both in the Middle East and beyond, Jerusalem is winning the diplomatic war:

Before launching its [1967] pre-emptive attack, only France had been willing to sell weapons to Israel, but Charles de Gaulle stopped all further sales as soon as the fighting started. In Rome, meanwhile, a cargo of gas masks headed for Tel Aviv was intercepted at the airport, even though Egypt’s occupying force had recently killed many in Yemen with phosgene and mustard gas.

This time, 50 years later, it has all been very different. The U.S., UK, and European Union did not try to stop the Israeli counteroffensive against Hamas. The U.S. found itself unimpeded in sending military supplies, while the Italian government came out in full support of Israel.

The necessary ceasefire prelude to every post-war plan is still being held up by Hamas, which demands full control of the entire Gaza Strip, as if it had just won a war. So long as it persists, the Israeli army can continue its war—knowing that, this time, its days of isolation are over.

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.