Since October 17, Tehran’s proxies have carried out 66 attacks on U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria, leaving 62 American servicemen injured. U.S. forces have struck back on four occasions, but only the last strike targeted actual enemy fighters, rather than munitions depots and empty buildings. What appears to have caused a lull in the attacks is the ceasefire in Gaza (achieved through Israeli military success), rather than the deterrent effect of these limited counterstrikes. Seth Cropsey and Shay Khatiri explain how America lost its deterrence, and what it would take to restore it:
Deterrence requires resolve and capabilities. Iran has feared Israel’s resolve and capabilities (though the October 7 attack might suggest a shift), but America does not instill fear, despite its capabilities. So, when Israel conducts military operations against Iran in Syria and Iraq and covert ones against its nuclear facilities, Iran in turn targets American forces in the Middle East in its double proxy war with Israel. To deter Israel, Iran has used its proxies to pressure the United States, expecting that the U.S. government would in turn exert pressure on Israel to de-escalate. Put simply, America has become the proxy for Iran to retaliate against Israel.
Could Iran succeed in pushing the Biden administration to ask Israel to cease operations in Gaza to end increasing attacks against U.S. military personnel?
The United States has never been successful in deterring or coercing Iran by punishing its proxies. But the only times that it [imposed a] direct, strategic cost on the Islamic Republic, it succeeded in enforcing deterrence. . . . Iran has no stomach for a direct confrontation with the United States.
More about: Gaza War 2023, Iran, Israeli Security, U.S. Foreign policy