The Spanish and British parliaments have voted to recognize a fictive Palestinian state; the Swedish government has also recognized such a state; and France is poised to be next. In the short run, these declarations are meaningless and purely symbolic. But, argues Guy Millière, they may soon add up to something:

The next step in anti-Israeli offensives will take place very soon. Mahmoud Abbas and the “Palestinian” leaders will go to the United Nations, and seek recognition of a “Palestinian State” by the UN Security Council. If they succeed, “Palestine” could become a full member-state of the UN without having to make any concessions to anyone at all—and free to continue inciting terror, committing terror, and glorifying those who practice terror. Abbas and Palestinian leaders might then demand that the Security Council set a deadline for Israel’s withdrawal to the “pre-1967 lines.”

France and the United Kingdom and will abstain, which will mean that they agree. The only thing that can prevent all this is a U.S. veto. However, relations between the United States and Israel have so deeply deteriorated since the beginning of the Obama presidency that many Israeli diplomats think a U.S. veto uncertain.

Israel’s goals of freeing the hostages and defeating Hamas (the latter necessary to prevent further hostage taking) are to some extent contradictory, since Yahya Sinwar, the ruler of the Gaza Strip, will only turn over hostages in exchange for concessions. But Jacob Nagel remains convinced that Jerusalem should continue to pursue both goals:

Only consistent military pressure on Hamas can lead to the hostages’ release, either through negotiation or military operation. There’s little chance of reaching a deal with Hamas using current approaches, including the latest Egyptian proposal. Israeli concessions would only encourage further pressure from Hamas.

There is no incentive for Hamas to agree to a deal, especially since it believes it can achieve its full objectives without one. Unfortunately, many contribute to this belief, mainly from outside of Israel, but also from within.

Recent months saw Israel mistakenly refraining from entering Rafah for several reasons. Initially, the main [reason was to try] to negotiate a deal with Hamas. However, as it became clear that Hamas was uninterested, and its only goal was to return to its situation before October 7—where Hamas and its leadership control Gaza, Israeli forces are out, and there are no changes in the borders—the deal didn’t mature.