In 2007, preparations for building a parking lot near one of the oldest areas of Israel’s capital led to the unearthing of a number of archeological treasures. Since then, extensive excavations have continued to provide surprising discoveries, including channels for holding some sort of liquid that date to the 9th century BCE. Nathan Steinmeyer describes this baffling discovery:

Located in the heart of ancient Jerusalem, the channels are unique within the archaeology of Israel. Consisting of two separate installations, 32 feet apart, the channels are cut into the bedrock of the hillside. The first installation consists of nine channels, smoothed on the inside. The second installation includes at least five channels that were related in some way to an industrial process carried out in the first installation.

As the channels were found near the area of the Temple and the city’s royal administrative quarter, excavators from the Israel Antiquities Authority (IAA) and Tel Aviv University propose the installations may have been used for industries related to one or both institutions. Currently, the team’s best guess is that they may have been used to soak products or materials, as the channels show no signs of having carried or transported liquid from one area to another.

The mystery only grew deeper when a second installation was found to the south. “This [second] installation consists of at least five channels that transport liquids,” said Yuval Gadot of Tel Aviv University and the excavation’s other co-director. “Despite some differences in the way the channels were hewn and designed, it is evident that the second installation is very similar to the first. This time, we also managed to date when the facility fell out of use, at the end of the 9th century BCE, during the days of the biblical kings of Judah, Joash and Amaziah. We assume that the two installations may have been used in unison.”

If Iran succeeds in obtaining nuclear weapons, the war in Gaza, let alone the protests on college campuses, will seem like a minor complication. Jonathan Schachter fears that this danger could be much more imminent than decisionmakers in Jerusalem and Washington believe. In his view, Israel seems to be repeating the mistake that allowed it to be taken by surprise on Simchat Torah of 2023 and Yom Kippur of 1973: putting too much faith in an intelligence concept that could be wrong.

Israel and the United States apparently believe that despite Iran’s well-documented progress in developing capabilities necessary for producing and delivering nuclear weapons, as well as its extensive and ongoing record of violating its international nuclear obligations, there is no acute crisis because building a bomb would take time, would be observable, and could be stopped by force. Taken together, these assumptions and their moderating impact on Israeli and American policy form a new Iran concept reminiscent of its 1973 namesake and of the systemic failures that preceded the October 7 massacre.

Meanwhile, most of the restrictions put in place by the 2015 nuclear deal will expire by the end of next year, rendering the question of Iran’s adherence moot. And the forces that could be taking action aren’t:

The European Union regularly issues boilerplate press releases asserting its members’ “grave concern.” American decisionmakers and spokespeople have created the unmistakable impression that their reservations about the use of force are stronger than their commitment to use force to prevent an Iranian atomic bomb. At the same time, the U.S. refuses to enforce its own sanctions comprehensively: Iranian oil exports (especially to China) and foreign-currency reserves have ballooned since January 2021, when the Biden administration took office.

Israel’s response has also been sluggish and ambiguous. Despite its oft-stated policy of never allowing a nuclear Iran, Israel’s words and deeds have sent mixed messages to allies and adversaries—perhaps inadvertently reinforcing the prevailing sense in Washington and elsewhere that Iran’s nuclear efforts do not present an exigent crisis.