Two days ago, a targeted strike killed Hamas’s deputy politburo head Saleh al-Arouri, along with six other operatives, in a Hizballah-dominated area of Beirut. Israel seems to have deliberately avoided eliminating any members of Hizballah, with which Arouri had a close relationship. Hanin Ghaddar and Matthew Levitt explain Arouri’s significance, and how Hizballah might react:

[E]ven as Hizballah will need to respond to the Israeli strike—both to preserve its “resistance” image and its sense of honor—it will likely do so in a way that falls short of full-scale war. This is in part because Iran does not wish to sacrifice Hizballah, its top regional asset, for the sake of Hamas. . . . Hizballah has already sustained serious damage in this war, and limiting further harm will remain a priority for various reasons.

Even if Hizballah does not seek a larger war, this prospect cannot be discounted, either by accident or design. Hizballah knows that Israel will not tolerate the risk posed by precision missiles or [its elite] Radwan forces along its border after the brutality of the October 7 Hamas attack. Yet Hizballah, in truth, is not ready for such a war. Most of its forces consist of younger personnel who have no experience fighting Israel. The group’s budget has been degraded by U.S. anti-Iran sanctions and its own expanded regional operations, having spent major assets in the Syrian war. And it lacks a signature leader in the mold of the late Imad Mughniyeh, who was killed in 2008.

Saleh al-Arouri’s death is a significant loss for Hamas. He played a critical role as one of the group’s primary and most effective liaisons to both Hizballah and Iran, meeting regularly in Beirut and from time to time in Tehran [with their officials]. The loss of someone so intimately involved in both tactical operations and strategic diplomacy is a serious setback for Hamas.

For some time, opponents of U.S support for Israel have been urging the White House to end the war in Gaza, or simply calling for a ceasefire. Douglas Feith and Lewis Libby consider what such a result would actually entail:

Ending the war immediately would allow Hamas to survive and retain military and governing power. Leaving it in the area containing the Sinai-Gaza smuggling routes would ensure that Hamas can rearm. This is why Hamas leaders now plead for a ceasefire. A ceasefire will provide some relief for Gazans today, but a prolonged ceasefire will preserve Hamas’s bloody oppression of Gaza and make future wars with Israel inevitable.

For most Gazans, even when there is no hot war, Hamas’s dictatorship is a nightmarish tyranny. Hamas rule features the torture and murder of regime opponents, official corruption, extremist indoctrination of children, and misery for the population in general. Hamas diverts foreign aid and other resources from proper uses; instead of improving life for the mass of the people, it uses the funds to fight against Palestinians and Israelis.

Moreover, a Hamas-affiliated website warned Gazans last month against cooperating with Israel in securing and delivering the truckloads of aid flowing into the Strip. It promised to deal with those who do with “an iron fist.” In other words, if Hamas remains in power, it will begin torturing, imprisoning, or murdering those it deems collaborators the moment the war ends. Thereafter, Hamas will begin planning its next attack on Israel:

Hamas’s goals are to overshadow the Palestinian Authority, win control of the West Bank, and establish Hamas leadership over the Palestinian revolution. Hamas’s ultimate aim is to spark a regional war to obliterate Israel and, as Hamas leaders steadfastly maintain, fulfill a Quranic vision of killing all Jews.

Hamas planned for corpses of Palestinian babies and mothers to serve as the mainspring of its October 7 war plan. Hamas calculated it could survive a war against a superior Israeli force and energize enemies of Israel around the world. The key to both aims was arranging for grievous Palestinian civilian losses. . . . That element of Hamas’s war plan is working impressively.