Since September 16—when a young woman named Mahsa Amini died in custody after being beaten by the Iranian police for “improperly” wearing her hijab—there have been continuous demonstrations in Iran of unprecedented size and scope. The regime, despite its ruthless response, has so far failed to quash the protests. Michael Doran, Mariam Memarsadeghi, and Alex Vatanka discuss the causes of the protests, what makes them different from previous outbreaks of unrest, their likely consequences, how the U.S. should respond, and why “woke” Westerners are ignoring a mass movement fueled by Iranian women standing up to oppression.
Understanding the Worst Period of Domestic Unrest in the Islamic Republic’s History
Will Tensions Rise between the U.S. and Israel?
Unlike his past many predecessors, President Joe Biden does not have a plan for solving the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Moreover, his administration has indicated its skepticism about renewing the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. John Bolton nevertheless believes that there could be a collision between the new Benjamin Netanyahu-led Israeli government and the Biden White House:
In possibly his last term, Netanyahu’s top national-security priority will be ending, not simply managing, Iran’s threat. This is infinitely distant from Biden’s Iran policy, which venerates Barrack Obama’s inaugural address: “we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.”
Tehran’s fist is today otherwise occupied, pummeling its own people. Still, it will continue menacing Israel and America unless and until the internal resistance finds ways to fracture the senior levels of Iran’s regular military and the Revolutionary Guards. Netanyahu undoubtedly sees Iran’s growing domestic turmoil as an opportunity for regime change, which Israel and others can facilitate. Simultaneously, Jerusalem can be preparing its military and intelligence services to attack Tehran’s nuclear program, something the White House simply refuses to contemplate seriously. Biden’s obsession with reviving the disastrous 2015 nuclear deal utterly blinds the White House to the potential for a more significant victory.
To make matters worse, Biden has just created a Washington-based position at the State Department, a “special representative for Palestinian affairs,” that has already drawn criticism in Israel both for the new position itself and for the person named to fill it. Advocated as one more step toward “upgrading” U.S. relations with the Palestinian Authority, the new position looks nearly certain to become the locus not of advancing American interests regarding the failed Authority, but of advancing the Authority’s interests within the Biden administration.